3
Globalization in the Long Run
Chapter 1 focused on evidence of globalization up to the present and concluded that we are not (yet) in the grips of a globalization apocalypse. As I also explained, the evidence supports two laws of globalization: the law of semiglobalization and the law of distance. Chapter 2 examined shocks to globalization, most notably the possibility of a global trade war, which it calibrated by going back to the global trade war of the 1930s. The laws of globalization, which continued to apply during that episode, underpin lessons that seem useful under today’s turbulent conditions. This chapter shifts the focus of the analysis further forward, to the long run.
Of course, purporting to analyze the long run when we have ...
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