WTF?: What's the Future and Why It's Up to Us

NOTES

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INTRODUCTION

  x       beat the world’s best human Go player: Cade Metz, “In Two Moves, AlphaGo and Lee Sedol Redefined the Future,” Wired, March 16, 2016, https://www.wired.com/2016/03/two-moves-alphago-lee-sedol-redefined-future/.

   x       An AI running on a $35 Raspberry Pi computer: Cecille de Jesus, “an AI Just Defeated Human Fighter Pilots in an Air Combat Simulator,” futurism.com, June 28, 2016, http://futurism.com/an-ai-just-defeated-human-fighter-pilots-in-an-air-combat-simulator/.

   x       it wants an AI to make three-fourths of management decisions: Olivia Solon, “World’s Largest Hedge Fund to Replace Managers with Artificial Intelligence,” Guardian, December 22, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/dec/22/bridgewater-associates-ai-artificial-intelligence-manage ment.

   x       Oxford University researchers estimate: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” Oxford Martin School, September 17, 2013, http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The _Future_of_Employment.pdf.

   x       Airbnb has more rooms on offer: Andrew Cave, “Airbnb Is on Track to Be the World’s Largest Hotelier,” Business Insider, November 26, 2013, http://www.businessinsider.com/airbnb-largest-hotelier-2013–11.

   xi      Uber is still losing $2 billion every year: Eric Newcomer, “Uber Loses at Least $1.2 Billion in First Half of 2016,” Bloomberg Technology, August 25, 2016, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-25/uber-loses-at-least-1-2-billion-in-first-half-of-2016.

   xi      Fortune magazine started keeping a list: “The Unicorn List,” Fortune, retrieved March 29, 2017, http://fortune.com/unicorns/.

   xi      “Unicorn Leaderboard”: “Crunchbase Unicorn Leaderboards,” TechCrunch, retrieved March 29, 2017, http://techcrunch.com/unicorn-leaderboard/.

   xii     “the name we give to the common experience”: Tom Stoppard, Rosencrantz & Guildenstern Are Dead (New York: Grove Press, 1967), 21.

   xiii    complaining about it: If you haven’t seen the late-night TV rant by comedian Louis CK, “Everything Is Amazing and Nobody’s Happy,” watch it now! Retrieved March 29, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8LaT5Iiwo4.

   xiv    “They transform their customers”: Michael Schrage, Who Do You Want Your Customers to Become? (Boston: Harvard Business Review Press, 2012), ebook retrieved March 29, 2017, https://www.safaribooksonline.com/library/view/who-do-you/9781422187852/chapter 001.html#a002.

   xvi    Sixty-three percent of Americans: Pew Research Center in Association with the Markle Foundation, The State of American Jobs, retrieved March 29, 2017, https://www.markle.org/sites/default/files/State-of-American-Jobs.pdf.

   xvi    life expectancy is actually declining in America: Olga Khazan, “Why Are So Many Americans Dying Young?,” Atlantic, December 13, 2016, https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/12/why-are-so-many-americans-dying-young/510455/.

   xix    health monitoring by wearable sensors: Darrell Etherington, “Google’s New Health Wearable Delivers Constant Patient Monitoring,” TechCrunch, June 23, 2015, https://techcrunch.com/2015/06/23/googles-new-health-wearable-delivers-constant-patient-monitoring/.

   xxi    what happens to the companies that depend on consumer purchasing power: Nicholas J. Hanauer, “The Capitalist’s Case for a $15 Minimum Wage,” Bloomberg View, June 19, 2013, https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles /2013-06-19/the-capitalist-s-case-for-a-15-minimum-wage.

   xxi    had the same experience: Richard Dobbs, Anu Madgavkar, James Manyika, Jonathan Woetzel, Jacques Bughin, Eric Labaye, and Pranav Kashyap, “Poorer than Their Parents? A New Perspective on income inequality,” McKinsey Global Institute, July 2016, http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/employment-and-growth/poorer-than-their-parents-a-new-perspective-on-income-inequality.

   xxi    Top US CEOs now earn 373x the income of the average worker: Melanie Trottman, “Top CEOs Make 373 Times the Average U.S. Worker,” Wall Street Journal, May 13, 2015, http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/05/13/top-ceos-now-make-373-times-the-average-rank-and-file-worker/.

   xxi    that chance has fallen to 50%: David Leonhardt, “The American Dream, Quantified at Last,” New York Times, December 8, 2016, https://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/12/08/opinion/the-american-dream-quantified-at-last.html.

   xxi    household debt is over $12 trillion: “Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York, August 2016, https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/householdcredit/data/pdf/HHDC _2016Q2.pdf.

   xxi    80% of gross domestic product, or GDP: St. Louis Fed, “Household Debt to GDP for United States,” https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HDTGPDUSQ163N.

   xxi    Seven million borrowers in default: “The Digital Degree,” Economist, June 27, 2014, http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21605899-staid-higher-education-business-about-experience-welcome-earthquake-digital.

   xxi    $30 trillion of cash is sitting on the sidelines: “Cash on the Sidelines: How to Unleash $30 Trillion,” panel discussion at the Milken Institute Global Conference, April 20, 2013, http://www.milkeninstitute.org/events/conferences/global-conference/2013/panel-detail/4062.

   xxiii  four major disruptive forces: Richard Dobbs, James Manyika, and Jonathan Woetzel, No Ordinary Disruption (Philadelphia: PublicAffairs, 2015), 4–7.

CHAPTER 1: SEEING THE FUTURE IN THE PRESENT

    3     “The skill of writing”: I don’t remember where I first heard this quote. It may have been in a public radio interview around 1980 or so. I once asked Ed Schlossberg, and he didn’t remember either.

    5     Mark Twain is reputed to have said: “History Does Not Repeat Itself, but It Rhymes,” Quote Investigator, retrieved March 27, 2017, http://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/01/12/history-rhymes/.

    6     free as in freedom: Sam Williams, Free as in Freedom: Richard Stallman’s Crusade for Free Software (Sebastopol, CA: O’Reilly, 2002). See also Richard Stallman, “The GNU Manifesto,” retrieved March 29, 2017, http://www.gnu.org/gnu/manifesto.en.html.

    8     “The Cathedral and the Bazaar”: Originally published at http://www.unterstein. net/su/docs/CathBaz.pdf. Book version: Eric S. Raymond, The Cathedral & the Bazaar (Sebastopol, CA: O’Reilly, 2001).

    9     “Hardware, Software, and Infoware”: Tim O’Reilly, “Hardware, Software, and Infoware,” in Open Sources: Voices from the Open Source Revolution (Sebastopol, CA: O’Reilly, 1999), available online at http://www.oreilly.com/open book/opensources/book/tim.html.

   12     sales of 250,000 units in the first five years: Edwin D. Reilly, Milestones in Computer Science and Information Technology (Westport, CT: Greenwood, 2003), 131.

   12     rumored to have sold 40,000 on the first day: Sol Libes, “Bytelines,” Byte 6, no. 12, retrieved March 29, 2017, https://archive.org/stream/byte-magazine-1981-12/1981_12_BYTE_06-12_Computer _Games#page/n315/mode/2up.

    14     Just for Fun: Linus Torvalds and David Diamond, Just for Fun (New York: Harper Business, 2001).

   15     “cut off Netscape’s air supply”: Joel Klein, “Complaint: United States v. Microsoft in the United States District for the District of Columbia, Civil Action No. 98–1232 (Antitrust), Filed: May 18, 1998,” retrieved March 30, 2017, https://www.justice.gov/atr/complaint-us-v-microsoft-corp.

   19     “It’s just not evenly distributed yet”: I believe I first heard Gibson say this in a 1999 NPR interview. I like to think that my frequent use of the quote in my talks from the time I first heard it has been the source of much of its usage, because it usually appears in the slightly misquoted form in which I remembered it. For Gibson’s account of its origin, see “The future has arrived,” Quote Investigator, retrieved March 30, 2017, http://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/01/24/future-has-arrived/.

   21     a tin of biscuits wrapped in brown paper: I believe I first heard this story from George Simon. It is also recounted in “Alfred Korzybski,” Wikipedia, retrieved March 30, 2017, https://en.wikipedia. org/wiki/Alfred_Korzybski#cite_note-4.

   22     sufficiently to use them in real life: Richard Feynman, Surely You’re Joking, Mr. Feynman (New York: Norton, 1984), 212.

   22     “Their knowledge is so fragile!”: Ibid., 36.

CHAPTER 2: TOWARD A GLOBAL BRAIN

   23     “The Open Source Paradigm Shift”: Tim O’Reilly, “The Open Source Paradigm Shift,” in Perspectives on Free and Open Source Software, ed. J. Feller, B. Fitzgerald, S. Hissam, and K. R. Lakhani (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2005). Also available at http://archive. oreilly.com/pub/a/oreilly/tim/articles/paradigmshift_0504.html.

   24     “an intellectual property destroyer”: Jim Allchin, quoted in Tim O’Reilly, “My Response to Jim Allchin,” oreilly.com, February 18, 2001, http://archive. oreilly.com/pub/wlg/104.

   24     emerge at an adjacent stage: Clay Christensen, “The Law of Conservation of Attractive Profits,” Harvard Business Review 82, no. 2 (February 2004): 17–18.

   25     I told free software advocates: There is a transcript of our exchange during the Q&A after my 1999 talk at the “Wizards of OS” conference in Berlin. Richard actually said it didn’t matter that Amazon’s software wasn’t free: “[T]he issue of free software versus proprietary arises for software that we’re going to have on our computers and run on our computers. We’re gonna have copies and the question is, what are we allowed to do with those copies? Are we just allowed to run them or are we allowed to do the other useful things that you can do with a program? If the program is running on somebody else’s computer, the issue doesn’t arise. Am I allowed to copy the program that Amazon has on it’s computer? Well, I can’t, I don’t have that program at all, so it doesn’t put me in a morally compromised position. . . .” See http://www.oreilly.com/tim/archives/mikro_discussion.pdf.

   27     Google is now running on well over a million servers: Google does not actually disclose this information, but in July 2013, Microsoft then-CEO Steve Ballmer noted that Microsoft Bing was running on almost that number; Google serves many more users, and the number has only grown since then. See Sebastian Anthony, “Microsoft Now Has One Million Servers—Less than Google, but More than Amazon, Says Ballmer,” Extremetech, retrieved March 29, 2017, https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/161772-microsoft-now-has-one-million-servers-less-than-google-but-more-than-amazon-says-ballmer.

   28     one of the most significant books of the twentieth century: Elizabeth Diefendorf, ed., The New York Public Library’s Books of the Century (New York: Oxford University Press, 1996), 149.

   29     “What Is Web 2.0?”: Tim O’Reilly, “What Is Web 2.0?,” oreilly.com, September 30, 2005, http://www.oreilly.com/pub/a/web2/archive/what-is-web-20.html.

   31     open letter to the company: David Stutz, “On Leaving Microsoft,” synthesist.net, retrieved March 29, 2017, http://www.synthesist.net/writing/onleavingms.html.

   32     global collaboration around open source projects: Tim O’Reilly, “Open Source: The Model for Collaboration in the Age of the Internet,” keynote at the Computers, Freedom, and Privacy Conference, Toronto, April 6, 2000, http://www.oreillynet.com/pub/a/network/2000/04/13/CFPkeynote.html.

   40     “increased by orders of magnitude”: Tim O’Reilly and John Battelle, “Web Squared: Web 2.0 Five Years On,” oreilly .com, retrieved March 30, 2017, https://conferences.oreilly.com/web2summit/web2009/public/schedule/detail/10194.

   41     “search a possible for its possibleness”: Wallace Stevens, “An Ordinary Evening in New Haven,” in The Palm at the End of the Mind, ed. Holly Stevens (New York: Vintage, 1972), 345.

   41     “a raid on the inarticulate”: T. S. Eliot, “East Coker,” The Four Quartets, New York, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 1943, renewed 1971.

   42     The @ symbol to reply to another user: “The First Ever Hashtag Reply and Retweet as Twitter Users Invented Them,” retrieved March 29, 2017, http://qz.com/135149/the-first-ever-hashtag-reply-and-retweet-as-twitter-users-invented-them/. Interestingly, even participants don’t get their history right. In a 2016 conversation, Jack Dorsey, the cofounder of Twitter, told me definitively that I had invented the retweet, and would not be deterred by my demurrals. I certainly was one of its most prolific early adopters, but I remember picking up the trick from someone else. I was particularly inspired by Leisa Reichelt’s lovely term for this new practice of sharing what you were reading rather than what you were doing: mindcasting.

   42     proposed the use of the # symbol: Chris Messina, Twitter update, retrieved March 29, 2017, https://twitter.com/chrismessina/status/223115412. Note that Joshua Schachter had earlier used # as a symbol for tags in his link-saving site del.icio.us.

   42     during the San Diego wildfires: Chris Messina, “Twitter Hashtags for Emergency Coordination and Disaster Relief,” retrieved March 29, 2017, https://factoryjoe.com/2007/10/22/twitter-hashtags-for-emergency-coordination-and-disaster-relief/.

   42     The app had already begun showing “trending topics”: “To Trend or Not to Trend,” Twitter Blog, retrieved March 29, 2017, https://blog.twitter.com/2010/to-trend-or-not-to-trend.

   43     features that the platform developer itself hadn’t imagined: “Twitpic,” retrieved March 29, 2017, https://en.wikipedia. org/wiki/TwitPic.

   43     Jim Hanrahan posted the first tweet: Jim Hanrahan, Twitter update, retrieved March 29, 2017, https://twitter.com/highfours/status/1121908186.

   43     passengers standing on the wing of the downed plane: “There’s a plane in the Hudson. I’m on the ferry going to pick up the people. Crazy.” Twitter update, retrieved March 29, 2017, https://twitter.com/jkrums/status/1121915133.

   43     “We Are All Khaled Said”: Facebook page, retrieved March 29, 2017, https://www.facebook.com/ElShaheeed.

   43     “an internal life of its own”: Michael Nielsen, Reinventing Discovery (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2011), 53.

   44     “A theory is a species of thinking”: Thomas Henry Huxley, “The Coming of Age of ‘The Origin of Species,’” Collected Essays, vol. 2, as reprinted at http://aleph0.clarku.edu/huxley/CE2/CaOS.html.

   45     “the way a genome runs on a multitude of cells”: George Dyson, Turing’s Cathedral (New York: Pantheon, 2012), 238–39.

   46     income that it can’t deliver: Sami Jarbawi, “Uber to Pay $20 Million to Settle FTC Case,” Berkeley Center for Law, Business and the Economy, January 31, 2017, http://sites.law.berkeley. edu/thenetwork/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2017/01/Uber-to-Pay-20-Million-to-Settle-FTC-Case.pdf.

   46     technology to deflect their investigations: Mike Isaac, “How Uber Deceives the Authorities Worldwide,” New York Times, March 3, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/03/technology/uber-greyball-program-evade-authorities.html.

   47     Rivals sue over claims of stolen technology: Alex Davies, “Google’s Lawsuit Against Uber Revolves Around Frickin’ Lasers,” Wired, February 5, 2017, https://www.wired.com/2017/02/googles-lawsuit-uber-revolves-around-frickin-lasers/.

   47     tolerates sexual harassment: Susan J. Fowler, “Reflecting on One Very, Very Strange Year at Uber,” Susan J. Fowler’s blog, February 19, 2017, https://www.susanjfowler.com/blog/2017/2/19/re flecting-on-one-very-strange-year-at-uber.

CHAPTER 3: LEARNING FROM LYFT AND UBER

   51     I called these meme maps: Tim O’Reilly, “Remaking the Peer-to-Peer Meme,” in Peer to Peer, ed. Andy Oram (Sebastopol, CA: O’Reilly, 2001). The essay is also available online at http://archive.oreilly.com/pub/a/495.

   54     “a remote control for real life”: Kara Swisher, “Man and Uber Man,” Vanity Fair, December 2014, retrieved March 30, 2017, http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2014/12/uber-travis-kalanick-controversy.

   54     “That’s what it’s all about”: Brad Stone, The Upstarts (New York: Little, Brown, 2017), 52.

   55     they observed in Zimbabwe: As told to me by Logan Green in 2015.

   56     the incentives: Stone, The Upstarts, 71.

   57     “everyone benefits”: “The Uber Story,” uber.com, retrieved March 30, 2017, https://www.uber.com/our-story/.

   57     one customer in Los Angeles: Priya Anand, “People in Los Angeles Are Getting Rid of Their Cars,” BuzzFeed, September 2, 2016, https://www.buzzfeed.com/priya/people-in-los-angeles-are-getting-rid-of-their-cars.

   59     one of the most difficult exams in the world: Jody Rosen, “The Knowledge, London’s Legendary Taxi-Driver Test, Puts Up a Fight in the Age of GPS,” New York Times Magazine, November 24, 2014, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/10/t-magazine/london-taxi-test-knowledge.html.

   59     it does save them money: “Workforce of the Future: Final Report (Slide 12),” Markle, retrieved March 30, 2017, https://www.markle.org/workforce-future-final-report.

   63     Tesla seems to have other plans: Dan Gillmor, “Tesla Says Customers Can’t Use Its Self-Driving Cars for Uber,” Slate, October 21, 2016, http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2016/10/21/tesla_says_customers_can_t_use_its _self_driving_cars_for_uber.html.

   64     “digital sharecroppers”: Nicholas Carr, “The Economics of Digital Sharecropping,” Rough Type, May 4, 2012, http://www.roughtype.com/?p=1600.

   67     “proximity to the market”: From an unpublished preprint sent to me by Laura Tyson of Laura Tyson and Michael Spence, “Exploring the Effects of Technology on Income and Wealth Inequality,” in After Piketty, ed. Heather Boushey, J. Bradford DeLong, and Marshall Steinbaum (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2017).

   68     on-demand drivers in their own cars: “Amazon Flex: Be Your Own Boss. Great Earnings. Flexible Hours,” Amazon, retrieved March 30, 2017, https://flex.amazon.com.

   69     Kalanick burst out: Eric Newcomer, “In Video, Uber CEO Argues with Driver over Falling Fares,” Bloomberg Technology, February 28, 2017, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-28/in-video-uber-ceo-argues-with-driver-over-falling-fares.

   70     “you’ll never be the same again”: PBS, One Last Thing, 2011, video clip of Steve Jobs 1994 comment republished April 24, 2013, http://mathiasmikkelsen.com/2013/04/everything-around-you-that-you-call-life-was-made-up-by-people-that-were-no-smarter-than-you/.

CHAPTER 4: THERE ISN’T JUST ONE FUTURE

   71     an appeal from Richard Stallman: Richard published his email to me as an open letter. https://www.gnu.org/philosophy/amazon-rms-tim.en.html.

   71     an email to Jeff Bezos: Tim O’Reilly, “Ask Tim,” oreilly.com, February 28, 2000, http://archive.oreilly.com/pub/a/oreilly/ask_tim/2000/amazon_patent.html.

   74     an open letter: Tim O’Reilly, “An Open Letter to Jeff Bezos,” oreilly.com, February 28, 2000, http://www.oreilly.com/amazon_patent/amazon_patent.comments.html.

   74     I had 10,000 signatures: Tim O’Reilly, “An Open Letter to Jeff Bezos: Your Responses,” oreilly.com, February 28, 2000, http://www.oreilly.com/amazon_patent/amazon_patent_0228.html.

   74     wasn’t introduced till six years later: Jeff Howe, “The Rise of Crowdsourcing,” Wired, June 1, 2006, https://www.wired.com/2006/06/crowds/.

   74     We did award the bounty: Tim O’Reilly, “O’Reilly Awards $10,000 1-Click Bounty to Three ‘Runners Up,’” oreilly.com, March 14, 2001, http://archive. oreilly.com/pub/a/policy/2001/03/14/bounty.html.

   75     after I published my open letter: Tim O’Reilly, “My Conversation with Jeff Bezos,” oreilly.com, March 2, 2000, http://archive.oreilly.com/pub/a/oreilly/ask_tim/2000/bezos_0300.html.

   76     Determining an Efficient Transportation Route: Sunil Paul, System and Method for Determining an Efficient Transportation Route, US Patent 6,356,838, filed July 25, 2000, and issued March 12, 2002.

   78     “with a single touch”: This was the Apple Pay page as of September 30, 2014, when I wrote “What Amazon, iTunes, and Uber Teach Us About Apple Pay,” oreilly.com, September 30, 2014. This language is no longer present on the Apple site as of March 30, 2017, https://www.apple.com/apple-pay/.

   79     automatically debit your account: “Introducing Amazon Go,” Amazon, retrieved March 30, 2017, https://www.amazon.com/b?ie=UTF8&node=1600 8589011.

   81     income and demographics: Sizing the Internet Opportunity (Sebastopol, CA: O’Reilly, 2004).

   82     till the end of 1993: “Robert McCool,” Wikipedia, retrieved March 30, 2017, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_McCool.

   82     opposed to the idea of third-party apps on the iPhone: Killian Bell, “Steve Jobs Was Originally Dead Set Against Third-Party Apps for the iPhone,” Cult of Mac, October 21, 2011, http://www.cultofmac.com/125180/steve-jobs-was-originally-dead-set-against-third-party-apps-for-the-iphone/.

   81     skeptical of the peer-to-peer model: Stone, The Upstarts, 199–200.

   86     “how the world *does* work”: Aaron Levie, Twitter update, August 22, 2013, https://twitter.com/levie/status/370776444013510656.

CHAPTER 5: NETWORKS AND THE NATURE OF THE FIRM

   90     “Apps can do now what managers used to do”: Esko Kilpi, “The Future of Firms,” Medium, February 6, 2015, https://medium.com/@EskoKilpi/movement-of-thought-that-led-to-airbnb-and-uber-9d4da5e3da3a.

   90     “support megacorporations”: Hal Varian, “If There Was a New Economy, Why Wasn’t There a New Economics?,” New York Times, January 17, 2002, http://www.nytimes.com/2002/01/17/business/economic-scene-if-there-was-a-new-economy-why-wasn-t-there-a-new-economics.html.

   90     largest media company in the world: “Google Strengthens Its Position as World’s Largest Media Owner,” Zenith Optimedia, retrieved March 30, 2017, https://www.zenithmedia.com/google-strengthens-position-worlds-largest-media-owner-2/.

   90     surpassed those of the largest traditional media companies: Tom Dotan, “Facebook Ad Revenue (Finally) Tops Media Giants,” The Information, November 22, 2016, https://www.theinformation.com/facebook-ad-revenue-finally-tops-media-giants?shared=Xmjr9tlVlXs.

   90     watch more video on YouTube: Andy Smith, “13–24 Year Olds Are Watching More YouTube than TV,” Tubular Insights, March 11, 2015, http://tubu larinsights.com/13-24-watching-more-youtube-than-tv/.

   90     world’s most valuable retailer: Shannon Pettypiece, “Amazon Passes Wal-Mart as Biggest Retailer by Market Value,” Bloomberg Technology, July 24, 2015, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-23/amazon-surpasses-wal-mart-as-biggest-retailer-by-market-value.

   91     “publish, then filter”: Clay Shirky, Here Comes Everybody (New York: Penguin, 2008), 98.

   93     6,300 companies operating 171,000 taxicabs: 2014 TLPA Taxicab Fact Book, available from https://www.tlpa.org/TLPA-Bookstore.

   94     total number of tellers: James Pethokoukis, “What the Story of ATMs and Bank Tellers Reveals About the ‘Rise of the Robots’ and Jobs,” AEI Ideas, June 6, 2016, http://www.aei.org/publication/what-atms-bank-tellers-rise-robots-and-jobs/.

   95     making house calls to deliver flu shots: “Uber Health,” Uber, November 21, 2015, https://newsroom.uber.com/uberhealth/.

   95     bringing elderly patients to doctors’ appointments: Zhai Yun Tan, “Hospitals Are Partnering with Uber to Get Patients to Checkups,” Atlantic, August 21, 2015, https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/08/hospitals-are-partnering-with-uber-to-get-people-to-checkups/495476/.

   95     from having 1,400 robots in its warehouses to 45,000: Sara Kessler, “The Optimist’s Guide to the Robot Apocalypse,” Quartz, March 19, 2017, https://qz.com/904285/the-optimists-guide-to-the-robot-apocalypse/.

   95     It added 110,000: Todd Bishop, “Amazon Soars to More than 341K Employees—Adding More than 110K People in a Single Year,” Geekwire, February 2, 2017, http://www.geekwire.com/2017/amazon-soars-340k-employees-adding-110k-people-single-year/.

   96     the comparison between Kodak: Scott Timberg, “Jaron Lanier: The Internet Destroyed the Middle Class,” Salon, May 12, 2013, http://www.salon.com/2013/05/12/jaron_lanier_the _internet_destroyed_the_middle_class/.

   97     5% of GDP in developed countries: “The Internet Economy in the G20,” BCG Perspectives, retrieved March 30, 2017, https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/media_entertainment_strategic _planning_4_2_trillion_opportunity _internet_economy_g20/?chapter=2.

   97     80 billion in the days of Kodak: Benedict Evans, “How Many Pictures?,” ven-evans.com, August 19, 2015, http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2015/8/19/how-many-pictures. These figures are from 2015, and are likely even larger today.

   97     “we decided to rent them out”: AllEntrepreneur, “Travel Like a Human with Joe Gebbia, Co-founder of AirBnB!,” AllEntrepreneur, August 26, 2009, https://allentrepreneur.wordpress.com/2009/08/26/travel-like-a-human-with-joe-gebbia-co-founder-of-airbnb/.

   98     “thick marketplace”: Alvin E. Roth, Who Gets What—and Why? (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 2015), 8–9.

   101   hundreds of millions of websites: “Netcraft Web Surver Survey, March 2017,” Netcraft, https://news.netcraft.com/ar chives/category/web-server-survey/.

   101   trillions of web pages: “How Search Works,” Google, retrieved March 30, 2017, https://www.google.com/inside search/howsearchworks/thestory/. The actual number cited is 130 trillion!

   101   Craig Newmark recalled the process: Dylan Tweney, “How Craig Newmark Built Craigslist with ‘No Vision Whatsoever,’” Wired, June 5, 2007, https://www.wired.com/2007/06/no_vision _whats/.

   102   seventh-most-trafficked site on the web: Tim O’Reilly, “When Markets Collide,” in Release 2.0: Issue 2, April 2007, ed. Jimmy Guterman (Sebastopol, CA: O’Reilly, 2007), 1, available online at http://www.oreilly.com/data/free/files/release2-issue2.pdf.

   102   Today it is still No. 49: Or #116, depending on whose panel you follow, Alexa or SimilarWeb. “List of Most Popular Websites,” Wikipedia, retrieved March 30, 2017, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_popular_websites.

   103   now enrolled in Amazon Prime: Alison Griswold, “Jeff Bezos’ Master Plan to Make Everyone an Amazon Prime Subscriber Is Working,” Quartz, July 11, 2016, https://qz.com/728683/jeff-bezos-master-plan-to-make-everyone-an-amazon-prime-subscriber-is-working/.

   103   200 million active credit card accounts: Horace Dediu, Twitter update, April 28, 2014, https://twitter.com/asymco/status/460724885120380929.

   103   begin their search at Amazon: “State of Amazon 2016,” Bloomreach, retrieved March 30, 2017, http://go.bloomreach.com/rs/243-XLW-551/images/state-of-amazon-2016-report.pdf.

   103   46% of all online shopping: Olivia LaVecchia and Stacy Mitchell, “Amazon’s Stranglehold,” Institute for Local Self Reliance, November 2016, 10, https://ilsr.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/ILSR_AmazonReport_final. pdf.

   103   remove the “Buy” button: Doreen Carvajal, “Small Publishers Feel Power of Amazon’s ‘Buy’ Button,” New York Times, June 16, 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/16/business/media/16amazon.html. O’Reilly Media distributes books for a number of smaller publishers, and several of them faced these kinds of tactics as a way to extract “co-op marketing” payments. And of course, Amazon notably used this technique during its 2014 dispute with Hachette. Amazon never used this technique with us, perhaps because they knew we had a strong direct online presence of our own. Shortly before the Hachette-Amazon dispute became public, Hachette approached me to inquire whether, and how quickly, we could license to them our platform for selling ebooks. Given that we had made a strong policy decision that using our platform required all ebooks to be DRM-free, and Hachette wasn’t willing to take that step, I declined.

   104   “a privately controlled one”: LaVecchia and Mitchell, “Amazon’s Stranglehold,” 13.

   104   “dwarf their activities on behalf of outside customers”: O’Reilly, “When Markets Collide,” 9.

   105   “an architecture of participation”: Tim O’Reilly, “The Architecture of Participation, oreilly.com, June 2004, http://archive. oreilly.com/pub/a/oreilly/tim/articles/architecture_of_participation.html.

   105   “than from the programs themselves”: Brian W. Kernighan and Rob Pike, The Unix Programming Environment (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1984), viii.

   105   “small pieces loosely joined”: David Weinberger, Small Pieces Loosely Joined (New York: Perseus, 2002). See also http://www.smallpieces.com.

   106   “a working simple system”: John Gall, Systemantics: How Systems Work and Especially How They Fail (New York: Quadrangle, 1977), 52.

   107   “rough consensus and running code”: Paulina Borsook, “How Anarchy Works,” Wired, October 1, 1995, https://www.wired.com/1995/10/ietf/.

   108   “Be liberal in what you accept from others”: Jon Postel, “RFC 761: Transmission Control Protocol, January 1980,” IETF, https://tools.ietf.org/html/rfc761.

   108   “TCP/IP promises to allow for easy migration to OSI”: Robert A. Moskowitz, “TCP/IP: Stairway to OSI,” Computer Decisions, April 22, 1986.

CHAPTER 6: THINKING IN PROMISES

   110   to pitch Jeff on the idea: Tim O’Reilly, “Amazon.com’s Web Services Opportunity,” PowerPoint deck March 8, 2001, uploaded to SlideShare March 30, 2017, https://www.slideshare.net/timoreilly/amazoncoms-web-services-opportunity.

   110   Amazon all-hands meeting in May 2003: Tim O’Reilly, “Amazon.com and the Next Generation of Computing,” PowerPoint deck May 20, 2003, uploaded to SlideShare March 30, 2017, https://www.slideshare.net/timoreilly/amazoncom-and-the-next-generation-of-computing.

   111   “coordination between those two groups”: Om Malik, “Interview: Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos,” GigaOm, June 17, 2008, http://www.i3businesssolutions.com/2008/06/interview-amazon-ceo-jeff-bezos-gigaom/.

   112   “Anyone who doesn’t do this will be fired”: Steve Yegge, “Stevey’s Google Platform Rant.” The original October 12, 2011, post on Google Plus was deleted, but it was preserved in a number of places, notably on Github: https://gist. github.com/chitchcock/1281611. Yegge explains why he deleted the post in a follow-up on Google Plus: https://plus. google.com/110981030061712822816/posts/bwJ7kAELRnf. However, he (and Google) did allow others to preserve the post. Note: Referring to point 6, “Anyone who doesn’t do this will be fired,” Kim Rachmeler told me, “I know Stevey said this but I don’t think Jeff ever did.” That being said, it does get across the commitment that is required to make this kind of digital transformation.

   113   “externally or internally”: Werner Vogels, “Working Backwards,” All Things Distributed, November 1, 2006, http://www.allthingsdistributed.com/2006/11/working_backwards.html.

   114   “we are not always so helpful”: Mark Burgess, Thinking in Promises (Sebastopol, CA: O’Reilly, 2015), 6.

   114   “communication is terrible!”: Janet Choi, “The Science Behind Why Jeff Bezos’s Two-Pizza Team Rule Works,” I Done This Blog, September 24, 2014, http://blog.idonethis.com/two-pizza-team/.

   115   “both to technology and to the workplace”: Burgess, Thinking in Promises, 1.

   116   animated explainer videos: Henrik Kniberg, “Spotify Engineering Culture (Part 1),” Spotify, March 27, 2014, https://labs.spotify.com/2014/03/27/spotify-engineering-culture-part-1/, and “Spotify Engineering Culture (Part 2),” September 20, 2014, https://labs. spotify.com/2014/09/20/spotify-engi neering-culture-part-2/.

   116   low-alignment/low-autonomy organization: A still from Spotify’s animated video illustrates this nicely: https://spotifylabs com.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/spotify-engineering-culture-part1.jpeg.

   116   “Follow the orders I would have given you”: This is not a verbatim quote, but my recollection from the interview with General Stanley McChrystal and Chris Fussell by Charles Duhigg on March 1, 2016, http://nytconferences.com/NWS _Agenda_2016.pdf. It is also possible that the statement was made in my conversation with General McChrystal after his talk.

   117   “‘or you can’t sell this product’”: John Rossman, The Amazon Way (Seattle: Amazon Createspace, 2014), Kindle ed., loc. 250.

   118   rescue the failed healthcare.gov website: Steven Brill, “Obama’s Trauma Team,” Time, February 27, 2014, http://time.com/10228/obamas-trauma-team/.

   118   working under sixty different contracts: John Tozzi and Chloe Whiteaker, “All the Companies Making Money from Healthcare.gov in One Chart,” Bloomberg Businessweek, August 28, 2014, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-08-28/all-the-companies-making-money-from-healthcare-dot-gov-in-one-chart.

   120   “Junta”: Venky Harinarayan, Anand Rajaraman, and Anand Ranganathan, Hybrid Machine/Human Computing Arrangement, US Patent 7,197,459, filed March 19, 2001, and issued March 27, 2007.

   121   “The New Secret Sauce”: Tim O’Reilly, “Operations: The New Secret Sauce,” O’Reilly Radar, July 10, 2006, http://radar.oreilly.com/2006/07/operations-the-new-secret-sauc.html.

   122   advantages that DevOps brings to an organization: Gene Kim, Kevin Behr, and George Spafford, The Phoenix Project, rev. ed. (Portland, OR: IT Revolution Press, 2014), 348–50.

   122   “computer kaizen”: Hal Varian, “Beyond Big Data,” presented at the National Association of Business Economists Annual Meeting, September 10, 2013, San Francisco, http://people.ischool.berkeley.edu/~hal/Papers/2013/BeyondBigDataPaper FINAL.pdf.

   123   “enable organizational learning and improvement”: Kim, Behr, and Spafford, The Phoenix Project, 350.

   123   “software to replace human labor”: Benjamin Treynor Sloss, “Google’s Approach to Service Management: Site Reliability Engineering,” in Site Reliability Engineering, ed. Betsy Beyer, Chris Jones, Jennifer Petoff, and Niall Richard Murphy (Sebastopol, CA: O’Reilly, 2016), online at https://www.safaribooksonline.com/library/view/site-reliability-engineering/9781491929117/ch01.html.

CHAPTER 7: GOVERNMENT AS A PLATFORM

   125   “subsidized access to data they were willing to pay for”: Carl Malamud, “How EDGAR Met the Internet,” media.org, retrieved March 30, 2017, http://museum.media.org/edgar/.

   126   freely available on the Internet: Steven Levy, “The Internet’s Own Instigator,” Backchannel, September 12, 2016, https://backchannel.com/the-internets-own-instigator-cb6347e693b.

   128   “the first Internet president”: Omar Wasow, “The First Internet President,” The Root, November 5, 2008, http://www.theroot.com/the-first-internet-president-1790900348.

   129   “vending machine government”: “The Next Government: Donald Kettl,” IBM Center for the Business of Government, retrieved March 30, 2017, http://www.businessofgovernment.org/blog /presidential-transition/next-government-donald-kettl.

   130   “not merely at an election one day in the year, but every day”: “Thomas Jefferson to Joseph C. Cabell, February 2, 1816,” in Republican Government, http://press-pubs.uchicago.edu/founders/documents/v1ch4s34.html. Reprinted from The Writings of Thomas Jefferson, ed. Andrew A. Lipscomb and Albert Ellery Bergh, 20 vols. (Washington, DC: Thomas Jefferson Memorial Association, 1905), vol. 14, 421–23.

   130   supported by a variety of business models: David Robinson, Harlan Yu, William Zeller, and Ed Felten, “Government Data and the Invisible Hand,” Yale Journal of Law & Technology 11, no. 1 (2009), art. 4, available at http://digital commons.law.yale.edu/yjolt/vol11/iss1/4.

   130   a working group meeting in December 2007: “Eight Principles of Open Government Data,” public.resource.org, December 8, 2007, retrieved March 30, 2017, https://public.resource.org/8 _principles.html.

   131   more useful to citizens and society: Andrew Young and Stefan Verhulst, The Global Impact of Open Data (Sebastopol, CA: O’Reilly, 2016), available for free download at http://www.oreilly.com/data/free/the-global-impact-of-open-data.csp.

   131   a market now worth more than $26 billion: “Global GPS Market 2016–2022: Market Has Generated Revenue of $26.36 Billion in 2016 and Is Anticipated to Reach Up to $94.44 Billion by 2022,” Business Wire, October 18, 2017, http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20161018006653/en/Global-GPS-Market-2016-2022-Market-Generated-Revenue.

   132   since it was first founded in 1952: Sean Pool and Jennifer Erickson, “The High Return on Investment for Publicly Funded Research,” Center for American Progress, December 10, 2012, https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/reports/2012/12/10/47481/the-high-return-on-investment-for-publicly-funded-research/.

   132   and commercial space travel: It is worth noting, though, that all of Musk’s big bets have been subsidized by forward thinkers in government, as has so often been the case before. See “Elon Musk’s Growing Empire Is Fueled by $4.9 Billion in Government Subsidies,” Los Angeles Times, May 30, 2015, http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-20150531-story.html.

   132   Forty-two million: “About Us,” Central Park Conservancy, http://www.central parknyc.org/about/. Seventy-five percent of the $65 million/year upkeep of the park comes from a nonprofit called the Central Park Conservancy, which was founded in 1980 as a result of declines in the quality of the park due to lack of city funding. The Central Park Conservancy could be read as a failure of government to provide the services that we pay for. It’s rather a testament to the fact that sometimes, concerned citizens are willing to step forward and effectively tax themselves to pay for something that matters. In many ways, you can look at the Central Park Conservancy as a special kind of “local government” funded by concerned citizens.

   134   “born when George III was on the throne”: Ha-Joon Chang, Bad Samaritans (New York: Bloomsbury Press, 2008), 3–4.

   134   great step forward in the American economy: Stephen S. Cohen and J. Bradford DeLong, Concrete Economics (Boston: Harvard Business Review Press, 2016).

   139   families trying to navigate the maze: Stephanie Ebbert and Jenna Russell, “A Daily Diaspora, a Scattered Street,” Boston Globe, June 12, 2011, http://archive. boston.com/news/education/k_12/articles/2011/06/12/on_one_city_street_school _choice_creates_a_gap/?page=full.

   143   in the shoes of those they mean to serve: Jake Solomon, “People, Not Data,” Medium, January 5, 2014, https://medium.com/@lippytak/people-not-data-47434 acb50a8.

   143   “the poor struggle with daily”: Ezra Klein, “Sorry Liberals, Obamacare’s Problems Go Much Deeper than the Web Site,” Washington Post, October 25, 2013, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/10/25/oba macares-problems-go-much-deeper-than-the-web-site/.

   144   “the best startup in Europe we can’t invest in”: Saul Klein, “Government Digital Service: The Best Startup in Europe We Can’t Invest In,” Guardian, November 25, 2013, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/nov/15/govern ment-digital-service-best-startup-europe-invest.

   145   GDS Design Principles: “GDS Design Principles,” UK Government Digital Service, retrieved March 31, 2017, http://www.gov.uk/design-principles.

   145   “Start with needs”: After Mike Bracken left the GDS, the first principle was rewritten to leave out the revolutionary idea that existing government processes might be getting in the way of user needs. For the original, whose first principle is reproduced here, see “UK Government Service Design Principles,” Internet Archive, retrieved July 3, 2014, https://web-beta.archive.org/web/20140703190229/https://www.gov.uk/design-principles#first. The second principle reproduced here is from the current version, footnoted above. It is actually stronger and clearer than the original.

   146   Casey Burns, and others: “The Digital Services Playbook,” United States Digital Service, retrieved March 31, 2017, https://playbook.cio.gov. Authorship is as recalled by Jen Pahlka.

   146   “inextricably linked to an understanding of the digital”: Tom Steinberg, “5 Years On: Why Understanding Chris Lightfoot Matters Now More Than Ever,” My Society, February 11, 2012, https://www.mysociety.org/2012/02/11/5-years-on-why-under standing-chris-lightfoot-matters-now-more-than-ever/.

   147   vulnerabilities in Department of Defense websites: “2016 Report to Congress: High Priority Projects,” United States Digital Service, December 2016, retrieved March 31, 2017, https://www.usds.gov/report-to-congress/2016/projects/.

   147   within and for the agencies: “2016 Report to Congress,” United States Digital Service, December 2016, retrieved March 31, 2017, https://www.usds.gov/report-to-congress/2016/.

   148   “to invite the tech people to the table”: As recalled by Jen Pahlka, who attended the event.

   149   “things you can fix if you choose to”: Mikey Dickerson, “Mikey Dickerson to SXSW: Why We Need You in Government,” Medium, retrieved March 31, 2017, https://medium.com/the-u-s-digital-service/mikey-dickerson-to-sxsw-why-we-need-you-in-government-f31dab 3263a0. These were Mikey’s opening remarks from a joint talk with Jen Pahlka at the 2015 SXSW Interactive Festival titled “How Government Fails and How You Can Fix It.”

   150   “do at all, or do so well, for themselves”: Abraham Lincoln, “Fragment on Government,” in Collected Works of Abraham Lincoln, vol. 2 (Springfield, IL: Abraham Lincoln Association, 1953), 222, reproduced at http://quod.lib.umich.edu/l/lincoln/lincoln2/1:262?rgn=div1;view=fulltext. There is a related fragment on page 221, reproduced at http://quod.lib.umich.edu/l/lincoln/lincoln2/1:261?rgn=div1;view=fulltext.

CHAPTER 8: MANAGING A WORKFORCE OF DJINNS

   155   breakthroughs and business processes: Steve Lohr, “The Origins of ‘Big Data’: An Etymological Detective Story,” New York Times, February 1, 2013, https://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/01/the-origins-of-big-data-an-etymological-detective-story/.

   155   speech recognition and machine translation: Alon Halevy, Peter Norvig, and Fernando Pereira, “The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Data,” IEEE Intelligent Systems, 1541–1672/09, retrieved March 31, 2017, https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/35179.pdf.

   156   “the sexiest job of the 21st century”: Thomas Davenport and D. J. Patil, “Data Scientist: The Sexiest Job of the 21st Century,” Harvard Business Review, October 2012, https://hbr.org/2012/10/data-scientist-the-sexiest-job-of-the-21st-century. Hal Varian had used this same phrase about statistics in 2009. See “Hal Varian on How the Web Challenges Managers,” McKinsey & Company, January 2009, http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/high-tech/our-insights/hal-varian-on-how-the-web-challenges-managers.

   157   “the right values for these parameters is something of a black art”: Sergey Brin and Larry Page, “The Anatomy of a Large-Scale Hypertextual Web Search Engine,” Stanford University, retrieved March 31, 2017, http://infolab.stanford. edu/~backrub/google.html.

   158   as many as 50,000 subsignals: Danny Sullivan, “FAQ: All About the Google RankBrain Algorithm,” Search Engine Land, June 23, 2016, http://searchengine land.com/faq-all-about-the-new-google-rankbrain-algorithm-234440.

   158   “new synapses for the global brain”: Tim O’Reilly, “Freebase Will Prove Addictive,” O’Reilly Radar, March 8, 2007, http://radar.oreilly.com/2007/03/free base-will-prove-addictive.html.

   158   “10 experiments for every successful launch”: Matt McGee, “BusinessWeek Dives Deep into Google’s Search Quality,” Search Engine Land, October 6, 2009, http://searchengineland.com/businessweek-dives-deep-into-googles-search-quality-27317.

   159   the manual that they provide: Search Quality Evaluator Guide, Google, March 14, 2017, http://static.googleusercontent.com/media/www.google.com/en//inside search/howsearchworks/assets/search qualityevaluatorguidelines.pdf.

   160   “Another big difference”: Brin and Page, “The Anatomy of a Large-Scale Hypertextual Web Search Engine,” Section 3.2. They expand on the problem in Appendix A.

   161   “the database of intentions”: John Battelle, “The Database of Intentions,” John Batelle’s Searchblog, November 13, 2003, http://battellemedia.com/archives/2003/11/the_database_of_intentions. php.

   162   how Google’s ad auction actually works: Hal Varian, “Online Ad Auctions,” draft, February 16, 2009, http://people. ischool.berkeley.edu/~hal/Papers/2009/online-ad-auctions.pdf.

   162   users find “meaningful”: Farhad Manjoo, “Social Insecurity,” The New York Times Magazine, April 30, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/25/mag azine/can-facebook-fix-its-own-worst-bug.html.

   163   “We shape our tools”: This quote is often mistakenly attributed to McLuhan himself. See “We shape our tools and thereafter our tools shape us,” McLuhan Galaxy, April 1, 2013, https://mcluhan galaxy.wordpress.com/2013/04/01/we-shape-our-tools-and-thereafter-our-tools-shape-us/.

   165   “what a typical Deep Learning system is”: Lee Gomes, “Facebook AI Director Yann LeCun on His Quest to Unleash Deep Learning and Make Machines Smarter,” IEEE Spectrum, February 28, 2015, http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/artificial-intelligence/face book-ai-director-yann-lecun-on-deep-learning.

   165   “can’t run it faster than real time”: Yann LeCun, Facebook post, December 5, 2016, retrieved March 31, 2017, https://m. facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid =10154017359117143&id=722677142.

   165   third most important: Sullivan, “FAQ: All About the Google RankBrain Algorithm.”

   165   stopped all work on the old Google Translate system: Gideon Lewis-Kraus, “The Great A.I. Awakening,” New York Times Magazine, December 14, 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/14/magazine/the-great-ai-awakening.html.

   167   algorithmic detection of fake news: Jennifer Slegg, “Google Tackles Fake News, Inaccurate Content & Hate Sites in Rater Guidelines Update,” SEM Post, March 14, 2017, http://www.thesempost.com/google-tackles-fake-news-inaccurate-content-hate-sites-rater-guidelines-update/.

   167   “directly from raw experience or data”: This claim has been removed from the deepmind.com website, but it can still be found via the Internet Archive. Retrieved March 28, 2016, https://web-beta.archive.org/web/20160328210752/https://deepmind.com/.

   167   “the hallmark of true artificial general intelligence”: Demis Hassabis, “What We Learned in Seoul with AlphaGo,” Google Blog, March 16, 2016, https://blog.google/topics/machine-learning /what-we-learned-in-seoul-with-alphago/.

   167   “getting to true AI”: Ben Rossi, “Google DeepMind’s AlphaGo Victory Not ‘True AI,’ Says Facebook’s AI Chief,” Information Age, March 14, 2016, http://www.information-age.com/google-deepminds-alphago-victory-not-true-ai-says-face books-ai-chief-123461099/.

   169   “thinking about how to make people click ads”: Ashlee Vance, “This Tech Bubble Is Different,” Bloomberg Businessweek, April 14, 2011, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-04-14/this-tech-bubble-is-different.

CHAPTER 9: “A HOT TEMPER LEAPS O’ER A COLD DECREE”

   172   as much as 30,000 pages of regulations: Andrew Haldane, “The Dog and the Frisbee,” speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s 366th economic policy symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 31, 2012, http://www.bis. org/review/r120905a.pdf.

   177   Brin answers, “All of us”: David Brin, The Transparent Society (New York: Perseus, 1998). See also http://www.davidbrin.com/transparentsociety.html.

   177   “is generally bad”: Bruce Schneier, “The Myth of the ‘Transparent Society,’” Bruce Schneier on Security, March 6, 2008, https://www.schneier.com/essays/archives/2008/03/the_myth_of_the _tran.html.

   178   “we all know where the creep factor comes in”: Alexis Madrigal, “Get Ready to Roboshop,” Atlantic, March 2014, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/03/get-ready-to-roboshop/357569/.

   178   steering Mac users to higher-priced hotels: Dana Mattioli, “On Orbitz, Mac Users Steered to Pricier Hotels,” Wall Street Journal, August 23, 2012, https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304458604577488822667325882.

   180   express their intent clearly and simply: “Share Your Work,” Creative Commons, retrieved March 31, 2017, https://crea tivecommons.org/share-your-work/.

   180   “Smart Disclosure”: “Smart Disclosure Policy Resources,” data.gov, retrieved March 31, 2017, https://www.data.gov/consumer/smart-disclosure-policy-resources.

   180   “smart contracts”: Josh Stark, “Making Sense of Blockchain Smart Contracts,” June 4, 2016, http://www.coindesk.com/making-sense-smart-contracts/.

   181   a requirement for interpretability: Tal Zarsky, “Transparency in Data Mining: From Theory to Practice,” in Discrimination and Privacy in the Information Society, ed. Bart Custers, Toon Calders, Bart Schermer, and Tal Zarsky (New York: Springer, 2012), 306.

   182   a perfect marketplace: Adam Cohen, “‘The Perfect Store,’” New York Times, June 16, 2002, http://www.nytimes.com/2002/06/16/books/chapters/the-perfect-store.html.

   182   nothing was known about the sellers: Paul Resnick and Richard Zeckhauser, “Trust Among Strangers in Internet Transactions: Empirical Analysis of eBay’s Reputation System,” draft of February 5, 2001, version for review by NBER workshop participants, http://www.presnick. people.si.umich.edu/papers/ebay NBER/RZNBERBodegaBay.pdf.

   183   “the apps and algorithms provide a filter”: David Lang, “The Life-Changing Magic of Small Amounts of Money,” Medium, unpublished post retrieved April 5, 2017, https://medium.com/@davidtlang/cacb7277ee9f.

   184   “the multitude and promiscuous use of coaches”: Steven Hill, “Our Streets as a Public Utility: How UBER Could Be Part of the Solution,” Medium, September 2, 2015, https://medium.com/the-wtf-economy/our-streets-as-a-public-utility-how-uber-could-be-part-of-the-solution-65772bdf5dcf.

   184   “cried out for public control over the taxi industry”: Steven Hill, “Rethinking the Uber vs. Taxi Battle,” Globalist, September 27, 2015, https://www.theglobalist.com/uber-taxi-battle-commercial-transport/.

   185   “The entire transaction”: Varian, “Beyond Big Data,” 9.

   186   “maximum amount of validated learning about customers”: Eric Ries, “Minimum Viable Product: A Guide,” Startup Lessons Learned, August 3, 2009, http://www.startuplessonslearned.com/2009 /08/minimum-viable-product-guide.html.

   186   Feedback loops are tight: For an excellent account of this process, see Chris Anderson, “Closing the Loop,” Edge, retrieved March 31, 2017, https://www.edge.org/conversation/chris_anderson-closing-the-loop.

   187   “500 pages of untested assumptions”: Tom Loosemore, “Government as a Platform: How New Foundations Can Support Natively Digital Public Services,” presented at the Code for America Summit in San Francisco, September 30–October 2, 2015, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjE_zj-7A7A&feature =youtu.be.

   189   “fall back to a minimal risk condition”: NHTSA Federal Automated Vehicles Policy, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, September 2016, https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot. gov/files/federal_automated_vehicles _policy.pdf, 14.

   189   “regulators need to accept a new model”: Nick Grossman, “Here’s the Solution to the Uber and Airbnb Problems—and No One Will Like It,” The Slow Hunch, July 23, 2015, http://www.nickgrossman.is/2015/heres-the-solu tion-to-the-uber-and-airbnb-problems-and-no-one-will-like-it/.

   190   Hospitality Staffing Solutions: Dave Jamieson, “As Hotels Outsource Jobs, Workers Lose Hold on Living Wage,” Huffington Post, October 24, 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/24/-hotel-labor-living-wage-outsourcing-indianapolis_n_934667.html.

   191   Integrity Staffing Solutions: Dave Jamieson, “The Life and Death of an Amazon Warehouse Temp,” Medium, October 23, 2015, https://medium.com/the-wtf-economy/the-life-and-death-of-an-amazon-warehouse-temp-8168c 4702049.

   191   the Gap: R. L. Stephens II, “I Often Can’t Afford Groceries Because of Volatile Work Schedules at Gap,” Guardian, August 17, 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/17/cant-afford-groceries-volatile-work-schedules-gap.

   191   Starbucks: Jodi Cantor, “Working Anything but 9 to 5,” New York Times, August 13, 2014, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/08/13/us/star bucks-workers-scheduling-hours.html.

   192   Starbucks only banned in mid-2014: Jodi Cantor, “Starbucks to Revise Policies to End Irregular Schedules for Its 130,000 Baristas,” New York Times, August 15, 2014, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/15/us/starbucks-to-revise-work-scheduling-policies.html.

   192   “not enough hours”: Jodi Lambert, “The Real Low-Wage Issue: Not Enough Hours,” CNN, January 13, 2014, http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/13/news/economy/minimum-wage-hours/.

   192   a host of other labor woes: Carrie Gleason and Susan Lambert, “Uncertainty by the Hour,” Future of Work Project, retrieved March 31, 2017, http://static.opensocietyfoundations. org/misc/future-of-work/just-in-time-workforce-technologies-and-low-wage-workers.pdf.

   192   a study of Uber drivers: Jonathan Hall and Alan Krueger, “An Analysis of the Labor Market for Uber’s Driver-Partners in the United States,” Uber, January 22, 2015, https://s3.amazonaws.com/uber-static/comms/PDF/Uber_Driver-Partners _Hall_Kreuger_2015.pdf.

   193   rather than to increase hours for individual workers: Susan Lambert, “Work Scheduling Study,” University of Chicago School of Social Service Administration, May 2010, retrieved March 31, 2017, https://ssascholars.uchicago. edu/sites/default/files/work-scheduling-study/files/univ_of_chicago_work _scheduling_manager_report_6_25_0. pdf.

   193   “In August 2013”: Esther Kaplan, “The Spy Who Fired Me,” Harper’s, March 2015, 36, available at http://populardemo cracy.org/sites/default/files/Harpers Magazine-2015-03-0085373.pdf.

   194   “new jobs fall on that spectrum”: Lauren Smiley, “Grilling the Government About the On-Demand Economy,” Backchannel, August 23, 2015, https://backchannel.com/why-the-us-secretary-or-labor-doesn-t-uber-272f18799f1a.

   194   They became part-time employees: Brad Stone, “Instacart Reclassifies Part of Its Workforce Amid Regulatory Pressure on Uber,” Bloomberg Technology, June 22, 2015, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-22/instacart-reclassifies-part-of-its-work force-amid-regulatory-pressure-on-uber.

   195   present for their children’s birthdays: Noam Scheiber, “The Perils of Ever-Changing Work Schedules Extend to Children’s Well-Being,” New York Times, August 12, 2015, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/13/business/economy/the-perils-of-ever-changin-work-schedules-extend-to-childrens-well-being.html.

   196   writing in Harvard Business Review: Andrei Hagiu and Rob Biederman, “Companies Need an Option Between Contractor and Employee,” Harvard Business Review, August 21, 2015, https://hbr.org/2015/08/companies-need-an-option-between-contractor-and-employee.

   196   writing on Medium: Simon Rothman, “The Rise of the Uncollared Worker and the Future of the Middle Class,” Medium, July 7, 2015, https://news. greylock.com/the-rise-of-the-uncollared-worker-and-the-future-of-the-middle-class-860a928357b7.

   196   “Shared Security Account”: Nick Hanauer and David Rolf, “Shared Security, Shared Growth,” Democracy, no. 37 (Summer 2015), http://democracyjournal.org/magazine/37/shared-security-shared-growth/?page=all.

   196   policy proposal for portable benefits: Steven Hill, “New Economy, New Social Contract,” New America, August 4, 2015, https://www.newamerica. org/economic-growth/policy-papers/new-economy-new-social-contract/.

   197   “the only game being played”: Zeynep Ton, The Good Jobs Strategy (Boston: New Harvest, 2014). This quote appears at http://zeynepton.com/book/.

CHAPTER 10: MEDIA IN THE AGE OF ALGORITHMS

   199   Macedonian teens out to make a buck: Craig Silverman and Lawrence Alexander, “How Teens in the Balkans Are Duping Trump Supporters with Fake News,” BuzzFeed, November 3, 2016, https://www.buzzfeed.com/craigsilver man/how-macedonia-became-a-global-hub-for-pro-trump-misinfo.

   199   to churn out the stuff: Laura Sydell, “We Tracked Down a Fake-News Creator in the Suburbs. Here’s What We Learned,” NPR All Tech Considered, November 23, 2016, http://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/11/23/503146770/npr-finds-the-head-of-a-covert-fake-news-operation-in-the-suburbs.

   199   “a pretty crazy idea”: Aarti Shahani, “Zuckerberg Denies Fake News on Facebook Had Impact on the Election,” NPR All Tech Considered, November 11, 2016, http://www.npr.org/sections/alltech considered/2016/11/11/501743684/zuckerberg-denies-fake-news-on-face book-had-impact-on-the-election.

   200   hyperpartisan stories shown to each group: “Blue Feed/Red Feed,” Wall Street Journal, May 18, 2016, updated hourly, retrieved March 31, 2007, http://graph ics.wsj.com/blue-feed-red-feed/.

   200   video claiming that her aide Huma Abedin: “Huma Kidding?,” Snopes.com, November 2, 2016, http://www.snopes.com/huma-abedin-ties-to-terrorists/.

   201   planted or amplified by Russia: Joseph Menn, “U.S. Government Loses to Russia’s Disinformation Campaign,” Reuters, December 21, 2016, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-dis information-analysis-idUSKBN1492PA.

   201   the week after his dismissive comments: Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook post, November 12, 2016, https://www.facebook.com/zuck/posts/10103253901916271.

   202   autocomplete for “Jews are . . .”: Carole Cadwalladr, “Google, Democracy and the Truth About Internet Search,” Guardian, December 4, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/dec/04/google-democracy-truth-internet-search-facebook.

   203   again topped by a page from Stormfront: Carole Cadwalladr, “How to Bump Holocaust Deniers off Google’s Top Spot? Pay Google,” Guardian, December 17, 2016, https://www.theguardian .com/technology/2016/dec/17/holocaust-deniers-google-search-top-spot.

   203   “this is exactly what it is”: Carole Cadwalladr, “Google Is Not ‘Just’ a Platform. It Frames, Shapes and Distorts How We See the World,” Guardian, December 11, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/11/google-frames-shapes-and-distorts-how-we-see-world.

   203   from 250 billion unique web domain names: “A Look at the Future of Search with Google’s Amit Singhal at SXSW,” PR Newswire, March 10, 2013, http://www.prnewswire.com/blog/a-look-at-the-future-of-search-with-googles-amit-singhal-at-sxsw-6602.html.

   203   more than 5 billion searches a day: Danny Sullivan, “Google Now Handles At Least 2 Trillion Searches per Year,” Search Engine Land, May 24, 2016, http://searchengineland.com/google-now-handles-2-999-trillion-searches-per-year-250247.

   204   made only about 300 times a day: Danny Sullivan, “Official: Google Makes Change, Results Are No Longer in Denial over ‘Did the Holocaust Happen?,’” Search Engine Land, December 20, 2016, http://searchengineland.com/googles-results-no-longer-in-denial-over-holocaust-265832.

   204   ends up with all the monkeys: William Oncken Jr. and Donald L. Wass, “Who’s Got the Monkey?,” Harvard Business Review, November–December 1999, https://hbr.org/1999/11/management-time-whos-got-the-monkey#comment-section.

   205   Holocaust denial had been improved: Danny Sullivan, “Google’s Top Results for ‘Did the Holocaust Happen’ Now Expunged of Denial Sites,” Search Engine Land, December 24, 2016, http://searchengineland.com/google-holocaust-denial-site-gone-266353.

   205   “Meme magic is real”: Milo Yiannopoulos, “Meme Magic: Donald Trump Is the Internet’s Revenge on Lazy Elites,” Breitbart, May 4, 2016, http://www.breitbart.com/milo/2016/05/04/meme-magic-donald-trump-internets-revenge-lazy-entitled-elites/.

   205   patent filed in June 2015: Erez Laks, Adam Stopek, Adi Masad, Israel Nir, Systems and Methods to Identify Objectionable Content, US Patent Application 20160350675, filed June 1, 2016, published December 1, 2016, http://pdfaiw.uspto.gov/.aiw?PageNum =0&docid=20160350675&IDKey =B0738725A3CA.

   206   flagged by fact checkers or the community: Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook post, November 18, 2016, https://www.facebook.com/zuck/posts/10103 269806149061.

   206   350,000 times on Facebook: Sapna Maheshwari, “How Fake News Goes Viral: A Case Study,” New York Times, November 20, 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/20/business/media/how-fake-news-spreads.html.

   206   “social listening tools”: Alexis Sobel Fitts, “The New Importance of ‘Social Listening’ Tools,” Columbia Journalism Review, July/August 2015, http://www.cjr.org/analysis/the_new_importance _of_social_listening_tools.php.

   207   Tucker had deleted the original tweet: Eric Tucker, “Why I’m Removing the ‘Fake Protests’ Twitter Post,” Eric Tucker (blog), November 11, 2016, https://blog. erictucker.com/2016/11/11/why-im-considering-to-remove-the-fake-protests-twitter-post/.

   207   recognized the significance of the blue check mark: Brooke Donald, “Stanford Researchers Find Students Have Trouble Judging the Credibility of Information Online,” Stanford Graduate School of Education, November 22, 2016, https://ed.stanford.edu/news/stanford-researchers-find-students-have-trouble-judging-credibility-information-online.

   207   “only the people we want to see it, see it”: Joshua Green and Sissa Isenberg, “Inside the Trump Bunker, with Days to Go,” Bloomberg Businessweek, October 27, 2016, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-27/inside-the-trump-bunker-with-12-days-to-go.

   208   “never letting them go”: Cadwalladr, “Google, Democracy and the Truth About Internet Search.”

   208   programs masquerading as users: Vindu Goel, “Russian Cyberforgers Steal Millions a Day with Fake Sites,” New York Times, December 20, 2016, http://www .nytimes.com/2016/12/20/technology/forgers-use-fake-web-users-to-steal-real-ad-revenue.html.

   209   faster than humans can patch them: Cyber Grand Challenge Rules, Version 3, November 18, 2014, DARPA, http://archive.darpa.mil/CyberGrandChal lenge_CompetitorSite/Files/CGC _Rules_18_Nov_14_Version_3.pdf.

   209   “uncertain, ambiguous, or incomprehensible”: Harry Hillaker, “Tribute to John R. Boyd,” Code One, July 1997, retrieved April 1, 2017, https://web. archive.org/web/20070917232626/http://www.codeonemagazine.com/archives/1997/articles/jul_97/july2a _97.html.

   210   decry the result as biased: Raj Shah, “Politi-Fact’s So-Called Fact-Checks Show Bias, Incompetence, or Both,” Republican National Committee, August 30, 2016, https://gop.com/politifacts-so-called-fact-checks-show-bias-incompetence-or-both/.

   210   “reflexive knowledge”: George Soros, The Crisis of Global Capitalism (New York: PublicAffairs, 1998), 6–18.

   210   “shaping the events in which we participate”: George Soros, Open Society (New York: PublicAffairs, 2000), xii.

   212   painted a very different picture: Gus Lubin, Mike Nudelman, and Erin Fuchs, “9 Maps That Show How Americans Commit Crime,” Business Insider, September 25, 2013, http://www.businessinsider.com/maps-on-fbis-uniform-crime-report-2013-9.

   212   “clickbait” headlines: Alex Peysakhovich and Kristin Hendrix, “News Feed FYI: Further Reducing Clickbait in Feed,” Facebook newsroom, August 24, 2016, http://newsroom.fb.com/news/2016/08/news-feed-fyi-further-reducing-clickbait-in-feed/.

   213   “legalizing child prostitution”: Travis Allen, “California Democrats Legalize Child Prostitution,” December 29, 2016, http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/california-democrats-legalize-child-prostitution/article/2610540.

   214   “maybe you recognize the source, maybe you don’t”: John Borthwick, “Media Hacking,” Render, March 7, 2015, https://render.betaworks.com/media-hacking-3b1e350d619c.

   214   “For the reason that it makes Google more money”: Cadwalladr, “How to Bump Holocaust Deniers off Google’s Top Spot? Pay Google.”

   215   Facebook’s desire not to be the arbiter of truth: Peter Kafka, “Facebook Has Started to Flag Fake News Stories,” Recode, March 4, 2017, https://www.recode.net/2017/3/4/14816254/facebook-fake-news-disputed-trump-snopes-politifact-seattle-tribune.

   215   “before it turns into a tsunami”: Krishna Bharat, “How to Detect Fake News in Real-Time,” NewCo Shift, April 27, 2017, https://shift.newco.co/how-to-detect-fake-news-in-real-time-9fdae0197bfd. Bharat’s article has many additional practical suggestions for how to algorithmically detect fake news in addition to some of those that I outline in this chapter.

   215   “the overall logic is the same”: Bharat, “How to Detect Fake News in Real-Time.”

   217   “to make it tolerate them”: Michael Marder, “Failure of U.S. Public Secondary Schools in Mathematics,” University of Texas UTeach, retrieved April 1, 2017, https://uteach.utexas.edu/sites/default/files/BrokenEducation2011. pdf, 3.

   218   work together for the common good: Mark Zuckerberg, “Building Global Community,” Facebook, February 16, 2017, https://www.facebook.com/notes/mark-zuckerberg/building-global-community/10154544292806634/.

   219   “They have become rich because they were civic”: Robert Putnam, “The Prosperous Community: Social Capital and Public Life,” American Prospect, Spring 1993, retrieved April 1, 2017, http://prospect.org/article/prosperous-com munity-social-capital-and-public-life.

   219   “for inclusion of all”: Zuckerberg, “Building Global Community.”

   220   his experience with the Egyptian revolution: Wael Ghonim, Revolution 2.0 (New York: Houghton Mifflin, 2012).

   221   “engage in rational discussion”: Colin Megill, “pol.is in Taiwan,” pol.is blog, May 25, 2016, https://blog.pol.is/pol-is-in-taiwan-da7570d372b5.

   221   “love comedies and horror but hate documentaries”: Ibid.

   222   you move accordingly: “Human Spectrogram,” Knowledge Sharing Tools and Method Toolkit, wiki retrieved April 1, 2017, http://www.kstoolkit.org/Human +Spectrogram.

   222   “mandatory for riders on uberX private vehicles”: Audrey Tang, “Uber Responds to vTaiwan’s Coherent Blended Volition,” pol.is blog, May 23, 2016, https://blog. pol.is/uber-responds-to-vtaiwans-coherent-blended-volition-3e9b75102b9b.

   223   points of agreement and disagreement: Ray Dalio, TED, April 24, 2017, https://ted2017.ted.com/program.

   224   “‘figure out how to get around it’”: Josh Constine, “Facebook’s New Anti-Clickbait Algorithm Buries Bogus Headlines,” TechCrunch, August 4, 2016, https://techcrunch.com/2016/08/04/facebook-clickbait/.

   226   half of digital ad spending: Greg Sterling, “Search Ads Generated 50 Percent of Digital Revenue in First Half of 2016,” Search Engine Land, November 1, 2016, http://searchengineland.com/search-ads-1h-generated-16-3-billion-50-percent-total-digital-revenue-262217.

   226   “We need a new model”: Evan Williams, “Renewing Medium’s Focus,” Medium, January 4, 2017, https://blog. medium.com/renewing-mediums-focus-98f374a960be.

   227   “To continue on this trajectory”: Ibid.

   227   “In an experiment”: Adam D. I. Kramer, Jamie E. Guillory, and Jeffrey T. Hancock, “Experimental Evidence of Massive-Scale Emotional Contagion Through Social Networks,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, June 17, 2014, updated with PNAS “Editorial Expression of Concern and Correction,” July 22, 2014, http://www.pnas.org/content/111/24/8788.full.pdf.

   227   “we are all lab rats”: Vindu Goel, “Facebook Tinkers with Users’ Emotions in News Feed Experiment, Stirring Outcry,” New York Times, June 29, 2014, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/30/technology/face book-tinkers-with-users-emotions-in-news-feed-experiment-stirring-outcry.html.

   228   with apologies to Pedro Domingos: This is a reference to the title of Domingos’s book, The Master Algorithm (New York: Basic Books, 2015).

   228   “damn good for CBS”: Eliza Collins, “Les Moonves: Trump’s Run Is ‘Damn Good for CBS,’” Politico, June 29, 2016, http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2016/02/les-moonves-trump-cbs-220001.

CHAPTER 11: OUR SKYNET MOMENT

   230   The messages were powerful and personal: “We Are the 99 Percent,” tumblr.com, September 14, 2011, http://weare the99percent.tumblr.com/page/231.

   231   “AI systems must do what we want them to do”: “An Open Letter: Research Priorities for Robust and Beneficial Artificial Intelligence,” Future of Life Institute, retrieved April 1, 2017, https://futureoflife.org/ai-open-letter/.

   231   “unconstrained by a need to generate financial return”: Greg Brockman, Ilya Sutskever, and OpenAI, “Introducing OpenAI,” OpenAI Blog, December 11, 2015, https://blog.openai.com/introduc ing-openai/.

   232   best friend of one autistic boy: Judith Newman, “To Siri, with Love,” New York Times, October 17, 2014, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/19/fashion/how-apples-siri-became-one-autistic-boys-bff.html.

   234   overpopulation on Mars: “Andrew Ng: Why ‘Deep Learning’ Is a Mandate for Humans, Not Just Machines,” Wired, May 2015, retrieved April 1, 2017, https://www.wired.com/brandlab/2015/05/andrew-ng-deep-learning-mandate-humans-not-just-machines/.

   235   change how we think and how we feel: Emeran A. Mayer, Rob Knight, Sarkis K. Mazmanian, John F. Cryan, and Kirsten Tillisch, “Gut Microbes and the Brain: Paradigm Shift in Neuroscience,” Journal of Neuroscience, 34, no. 46 (2014): 15490–96, doi:10.1523/JNEU ROSCI.3299-14.2014.

   235   “games of self-play”: David Silver et al., “Mastering the Game of Go with Deep Neural Networks and Tree Search,” Nature 529 (2016): 484–89, doi:10.1038/nature16961.

   236   “previously encountered examples”: Beau Cronin, “Untapped Opportunities in AI,” 
O’Reilly Ideas, June 4, 2014, https://www.oreilly.com/ideas/untapped-opportunities-in-ai.

   237   “that for a computer is plenty of time”: Michael Lewis interviewed by Terry Gross, “On a ‘Rigged’ Wall Street, Milliseconds Make All the Difference,” NPR Fresh Air, April 1, 2014, http://www.npr.org/2014/04/01/297686724/on-a-rigged-wall-street-milliseconds-make-all-the-difference.

   238 “Creating things that you don’t understand is really not a good idea”: Felix Salmon, “John Thain Comes Clean,” Reuters, October 7, 2009, http://blogs. reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/10/07/john-thain-comes-clean/.

   238   credit far in excess of the underlying real assets: Gary Gorton, “Shadow Banking,” The Region (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis), December 2010, retrieved April 2, 2017, http://faculty.som. yale.edu/garygorton/documents/Interview withTheRegionFRBofMinneapolis.pdf.

   239   “an existential threat to capitalism”: Mark Blyth, “Global Trumpism,” Foreign Affairs, November 15, 2016, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2016-11-15/global-trumpism.

   240   “pure and unadulterated socialism”: Milton Friedman, “The Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits,” New York Times Magazine, September 13, 1970, retrieved April 2, 2017, http://www.colorado.edu/studentgroups/liber tarians/issues/friedman-soc-resp-business.html.

   241   benefit the business and its actual owners: Michael C. Jensen, and William H. Meckling, “Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs and Ownership Structure,” Journal of Financial Economics 3, no. 4 (1976), http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.94043.

   241   sold or shuttered: Jack Welch, “Growing Fast in a Slow-Growth Economy,” Appendix A in Jack Welch and John Byrne, Jack: Straight from the Gut (New York: Warner Books, 2001).

   242   “above which repurchases will be eschewed”: Warren Buffett, “Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters: 2016,” Berkshire Hathaway, February 25, 2017, http://berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2016ltr.pdf.

   243   “fulfill their responsibilities to their employees”: Larry Fink, “I write on behalf of our clients . . . ,” BlackRock, January 24, 2017, https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/en-us/investor-relations/larry-fink-ceo-letter.

   243   growth of productivity in the US economy slowed substantially after 1970: Robert J. Gordon, The Rise and Fall of American Growth (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2016).

   244   half of all Americans are shareholders in any form: Justin McCarthy, “Little Change in Percentage of Americans Who Own Stocks,” Gallup, April 22, 2015, http://www.gallup.com/poll/182816/little-change-percentage-americans-invested-market.aspx.

   244   outperforms both its publicly traded competitors and the entire S&P 500 retail index: Kyle Stock, “REI’s Crunchy Business Model Is Crushing Retail Competitors,” Bloomberg, March 27, 2015, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-27/rei-s-crunchy-business-model-is-crushing-retail-competitors.

   244   from money managers to its customers: “Why Ownership Matters,” Vanguard, retrieved April 4, 2017, https://about. vanguard.com/what-sets-vanguard-apart/why-ownership-matters/.

   245   an astonishing $3.4 trillion on stock buybacks: William Lazonick, “Stock Buybacks: From Retain-and-Reinvest to Downsize-and-Distribute,” Brookings Center for Effective Public Management, April 2015, https://www.brook ings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/lazonick.pdf.

   245   “investment in productive assets”: Ibid., 4.

   245   “distributes corporate cash to shareholders”: Ibid., 2.

   246   “social rate of return” from innovation: Charles Jones and John Williams, “Measuring the Social Return to R&D,” Federal Reserve Board of Governors, February 1997, https://www.federalreserve. gov/pubs/feds/1997/199712/199712 pap.pdf.

   246   “not the golden goose itself”: Ashish Arora, Sharon Belenzon, and Andrea Patacconi, “Killing the Golden Goose? The Decline of Science in Corporate R&D,” National Bureau of Economic Research, January 2015, doi:10.3386/w20902.

   246   from about 4% to nearly 11%: Derek Thompson, “Corporate Profits Are Eating the Economy,” Atlantic, March 4, 2013, https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/03/corporate-profits-are-eating-the-economy/273687/. Updated figures on which this graph is based are available from US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Compensation of Employees: Wages and Salary Accruals (WASCUR), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WASCUR, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, April 2, 2017; Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj) (CP), retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred. stlouisfed.org/series/CP, April 2, 2017; Gross Domestic Product (GDP), retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed. org/series/GDP, April 2, 2017.

   246   “something approaching a zero-sum game”: Rana Foroohar, Makers and Takers (New York: Crown, 2016), 18.

   246   “the one percent in pre-revolutionary France”: Rana Foroohar, “Thomas Piketty: Marx 2.0,” Time, May 9, 2014, http://time.com/92087/thomas-piketty-marx-2-0/. Retrieved April 2, 2017, http://piketty. pse.ens.fr/files/capital21c/en/media/Time%20-%20Capital%20in%20the %20Twenty-First%20Century.pdf.

   247   “‘sustainable prosperity’”: Lazonick, “Stock Buybacks,” 2.

   247   more of the compensation moved to stock: Foroohar, Makers and Takers, 280.

   247   options had to be disclosed, but not valued: Hal Varian, “Economic Scene,” New York Times, April 8, 2004, retrieved April 2, 2017, http://people.ischool.berkeley. edu/~hal/people/hal/NYTimes/2004-04-08.html.

   248   “profit extracted through harm to others”: Umair Haque, “The Value Every Business Needs to Create Now,” Harvard Business Review, July 31, 2009, https://hbr.org/2009/07/the-value-every-business-needs.

   248   disinformation firms used by the tobacco industry: Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway, Merchants of Doubt (New York: Bloomsbury Press, 2011).

   249   “left holding the bag”: George Akerlof and Paul Romer, “Looting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2 (1993), http://pages.stern.nyu. edu/~promer/Looting.pdf.

   250   “The customer is the foundation of a business”: Peter F. Drucker, The Practice of Management (New York: Routledge, 2007), 31–32.

   251   “a dumb idea”: Francesco Guerrera, “Welch Condemns Share Price Focus,” Financial Times, March 12, 2009, https://www.ft.com/content/294ff1f2-0f27-11de-ba10-0000779fd2ac.

   252   “now serves mainly itself”: Rana Foroohar, “American Capitalisms’s Great Crisis,” Time, May 11, 2016, http://time.com/4327419/american-capitalisms-great-crisis/.

CHAPTER 12: REWRITING THE RULES

   255   “improve life for people in general”: Joseph E. Stiglitz, “Of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1%,” Vanity Fair, May 2011, http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2011/05/top-one-percent-201105.

   256   “and shareholder value creation”: Nelson D. Schwartz, “Carrier Workers See Costs, Not Benefits, of Global Trade,” New York Times, March 19, 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/20/business/economy/carrier-workers-see-costs-not-benefits-of-global-trade.html.

   256   $12 billion to buy back their stock: Tedd Mann and Ezekiel Minaya, “United Technologies Unveils $12 Billion Buyback,” Wall Street Journal, October 20, 2015, https://www.wsj.com/articles/uni ted-technologies-unveils-12-billion-buyback-1445343580.

   258   “economism”: James Kwak, Economism (New York: Random House, 2016). This is often referred to as “market fundamentalism.”

   260   scheduled by calling a dispatcher: Stone, The Upstarts, 43.

   261   “extract all of his surplus”: Hal Varian, “Economic Mechanism Design for Computerized Agents,” Proceedings of the First USENIX Workshop on Electronic Commerce (New York: Usenix, 1995), retrieved April 2, 2015, http://people.ischool.berkeley.edu/~hal/Papers/mechanism-design.pdf.

   262   “It is not from the benevolence of the butcher”: Russ Roberts, How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life (New York: Penguin, 2014), 21.

   262   who would set the rules of the game: There is a growing nostalgia for unions, very different from the disdain that they were held in twenty years ago. See for example Ben Casselman, “Americans Don’t Miss Manufacturing—They Miss Unions,” FiveThirtyEight, May 13, 2016, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-dont-miss-manufacturing-they-miss-unions/.

   263   rethink the labor movement as well: Harold Meyerson, “The Seeds of a New Labor Movement,” American Prospect, October 30, 2014, http://prospect.org/article/labor-crossroads-seeds-new-movement.

   263   “redistribute so that overall people are better off”: Pia Malaney, “The Economic Origins of the Populist Backlash,” BigThink, March 5, 2017, http://bigthink.com/videos/pia-malaney-on-the-economics-of-rust-belt-populism.

   264   “the federal minimum would be $15.34”: John Schmitt: “The Minimum Wage Is Too Damn Low,” Center for Economic Policy Research, March 2012, http://cepr.net/documents/publications/min-wage1-2012-03.pdf.

   265   optimized for those with more to spend: Xavier Jaravel, “The Unequal Gains from Product Innovations: Evidence from the US Retail Sector,” 2016, http://scholar. harvard.edu/xavier/publications/unequal-gains-product-innovations-evidence-us-retail-sector.

   265   “Even the richest people only sleep on one or two pillows”: Nick Hanauer, in the film Inequality for All, http://inequality forall.com. The clip containing Nick’s comments can be found at http://www.upworthy.com/when-they-say-cutting-taxes-on-the-rich-means-job-creation-theyre-lying-just-ask-this-rich-guy.

   265   “go to the casino than the restaurant”: Foroohar, Makers and Takers, 14.

   266   approximately $5 billion per year: “Study Shows Walmart Can ‘Easily Afford’ $15 Minimum Wage,” Fortune, June 11, 2016, http://fortune.com/2016/06/11/wal mart-minimum-wage-study/.

   266   Supplemental Nutrition Assistance: “WALMART ON TAX DAY,” Americans for Tax Fairness, retrieved April 2, 2017, https://americansfortaxfairness.org/files/Wal mart-on-Tax-Day-Americans-for-Tax-Fairness-1.pdf.

   266   $153 billion per year: Ken Jacobs, “Americans Are Spending $153 Billion a Year to Subsidize McDonald’s and Wal-Mart’s Low Wage Workers,” Washington Post, April 15, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/04/15/we-are-spending-153-billion-a-year-to-subsidize-mcdonalds-and-walmarts-low-wage-workers/.

   266   costing the company $2.6 billion: Neil Irwin, “How Did Walmart Get Cleaner Stores and Higher Sales? It Paid Its People More,” New York Times, October 25, 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/16/upshot/how-did-walmart-get-cleaner-stores-and-higher-sales-it-paid-its-people-more.html.

   266   rewrite the rules: Joseph Stiglitz, Rewriting the Rules of the American Economy (New York: Roosevelt Institute, 2015), http://rooseveltinstitute.org/rewrite-rules/.

   267   a national $15 minimum wage: David Rolf, The Fight for $15 (New York: New Press, 2016).

   267   “an intimidation tactic masquerading as an economic theory”: Nick Hanauer in conversation with Tim O’Reilly, Next:Economy Summit, San Francisco, November 12–13, 2015, video at https://www.safari booksonline.com/library/view/nexteconomy-2015-/9781491944547/video231634.html.

   267   not have much impact in major cities: Paul K. Sonn and Yannet Lathrop, “Raise Wages, Kill Jobs? Seven Decades of Historical Data Find No Correlation Between Minimum Wage Increases and Employment Levels,” National Employment Law Project, May 5, 2016, http://www.nelp.org/publication/raise-wages-kill-jobs-no-correlation-minimum-wage-increases-employment-levels/.

   269   Summit on Technology and Opportunity: Summit on Technology and Opportunity, Stanford University, November 29, 30, 2016, http://inequality. stanford.edu/sites/default/files/Agenda _Summit-Tech-Opportunity_2.pdf.

   269   a lunchtime debate with Martin Ford: Martin Ford and Tim O’Reilly, “Two (Contrasting) Views of the Future,” Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality, a conversation at the Summit on Technology and Opportunity, Stanford University, November 29, 30, 2016, video published December 16, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch ?v=F7vJDtwidWU.

   269   including knowledge work: Martin Ford, The Rise of the Robots (New York: Basic Books, 2015).

   271   lack of aggregate consumer demand: Bill Gross, “America’s Debt Is Not Its Biggest Problem,” Washington Post, August 10, 2011, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/americas-debt-is-not-its-biggest-problem/2011/08/10/gIQAgYvE7I _story.html.

   271   “on the demand, rather than the supply, side”: Robert Summers, “The Age of Secular Stagnation: What It Is and What to Do About It,” Foreign Affairs, February 15, 2016, retrieved from http://larrysummers.com/2016/02/17/the-age-of-secular-stagnation/.

   271   “Only around 15%”: Rana Foroohar, “The Economy’s Hidden Illness—One Even Trump Failed to Address,” LinkedIn Pulse, November 12, 2016, https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/economys-hidden-illness-one-even-trump-failed-address-rana-foroohar.

   272   “the job is likely to be ill-done”: John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (New York: Harcourt Brace, 1964), 159.

   272   “long-term prospects and to those only”: Ibid., 160.

   272   each additional year that an asset is held: Fink, “I write on behalf of our clients . . .”

   272   such as that proposed by Thomas Piketty: Michelle Fox, “Why We Need a Global Wealth Tax: Piketty,” CNBC, March 10, 2015, http://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/10/why-we-need-a-global-wealth-tax-piketty.html.

   273   “it’s good for business”: Stiglitz, “Of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1%.”

CHAPTER 13: SUPERMONEY

   274   “games played between the state, the market economy, and financial capitalism”: William H. Janeway, Doing Capitalism in the Innovation Economy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012), 3.

   277   pays off all the failed bets: Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital (Cheltenham, England: Edward Elgar, 2002).

   277   “Occasionally, decisively”: Bill Janeway, “What I Learned by Doing Capitalism,” LSE Public Lecture, London School of Economics and Political Science, October 11, 2012, transcript retrieved April 4, 2017.

   278   Goodman’s 1972 book of that name: Adam Smith, Supermoney (Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, 2006).

   281   the rise of superstar firms: Bouree Lam, “One Reason Workers Are Struggling Even When Companies Are Doing Well,” Atlantic, February 1, 2017, https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/02/labors-share/515211/.

   281   when stock-based compensation is taken into account: Bloomberg News, “Amazon, Facebook Admit Stock Compensation Is a Normal Cost,” Investor’s Business Daily, May 3, 2016, http://www.investors.com/news/technology/amazon-stops-pretending-that-stock-compensation-isnt-a-normal-cost/.

   282   no longer afford to live in a city like San Francisco: Hal Varian, “Is Affordable Housing Becoming an Oxymoron?,” New York Times, October 20, 2005, http://people.ischool.berkeley.edu/~hal/people/hal/NYTimes/2005-10-21.html. Hal called this in 2005!

   282   venture capital investment in 2015: Press release, “$58.8 Billion in Venture Capital Invested Across U.S. in 2015,” National Venture Capital Association, January 15, 2016, http://nvca.org/press releases/58-8-billion-in-venture-capital-invested-across-u-s-in-2015-according-to-the-moneytree-report-2/.

   282   smaller funds typically deliver better results: Kauffman Foundation, “WE HAVE MET THE ENEMY . . . AND HE IS US: Lessons from Twenty Years of the Kauffman Foundation’s Investments in Venture Capital Funds and the Triumph of Hope over Experience,” Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, May 2012, http://www.kauffman.org/~/media/kauffman _org/research%20reports%20and %20covers/2012/05/we_have_met_the _enemy_and_he_is_us.pdf.

   283   “it’s one of a hundred games in town”: Jon Oringer in conversation with Charlie Herman, “Failure Is Not an Option. . . . But it Should Be,” Money Talking, WNYC, January 16, 2015, http://www.wnyc.org/story/failure-not-an-option-but-it-should-be/.

   286   Three had no investment at all from VCs: Bryce Roberts, “Helluva Lifestyle Business You Got There,” Medium, January 31, 2017, https://medium.com/strong-words/helluva-lifestyle-business-you-got-there-e1ebd3104a95.

   286   which he called indie.vc: Bryce Roberts, “We Invest in Real Businesses,” indie.vc, retrieved April 3, 2017, http://www.indie.vc.

   287   tens of millions in distribution: Jason Fried, “Jason Fried on Valuations, Basecamp, and Why He’s No Longer Poking the World in the Eye,” interview with Mixergy, April 4, 2016, https://mixergy.com/interviews/basecamp-with-jason-fried/.

   287   “if growth is not immediate and meteoric”: Marc Hedlund, “Indie.vc, and focus,” Skyliner (blog), December 14, 2016, https://blog.skyliner.io/indie-vc-and-focus-8e833d8680d4.

   289   “faster than any company in Silicon Valley”: Hank Green, “Introducing the Internet Creators Guild,” June 15, 2016, https://medium.com/internet-creators-guild/introducing-the-internet-creators-guild-e0db6867e0c3.

   290   at the Vatican in November 2016: Fortune +Time Global Forum 2016, “The 21st Century Challenge: Forging a New Social Compact,” Rome and Vatican City, December 2–3, 2016, http://www.fortuneconferences.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Fortune-Time-Global-Forum-2016-Working-Group-Solutions. pdf.

   290   by $165 billion: Google, Economic Im-pact, United States 2015, retrieved Dec-ember 12, 2016, https://economicimpact. google.com/#/.

   290   more than 60% of their traffic came from search: Nathan Safran, “Organic Search Is Actually Responsible for 64% of Your Web Traffic (Thought Experiment),” July 10, 2014, https://www.conductor.com/blog/2014/07/organic-search-actually-responsible-64-web-traffic/.

   291   commissioned a report: Yancey Strickler, “Kickstarter’s Impact on the Creative Economy,” The Kickstarter Blog, July 28, 2016, https://www.kickstarter.com/blog/kickstarters-impact-on-the-creative-economy.

   291   have gone on to great success: Amy Feldman, “Ten of the Most Successful Companies Built on Kickstarter,” Forbes, April 14, 2016, https://www.forbes.com/sites/amyfeldman/2016/04/14/ten-of-the-most-successful-companies-built-on-kickstarter/#4dec455f69e8.

   292   register as a public benefit corporation: Yancey Strickler, Perry Chen, and Charles Adler, “Kickstarter Is Now a Benefit Corporation,” The Kickstarter Blog, September 21, 2015, https://www.kick starter.com/blog/kickstarter-is-now-a-benefit-corporation.

   292   regular cash distributions to their shareholders: Joshua Brustein, “Kickstarter Just Did Something Tech Startups Never Do: It Paid a Dividend,” Bloomberg, June 17, 2016, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-17/kickstarter-just-did-something-tech-startups-never-do-it-paid-a-dividend.

   292   shareholder value primacy has no legal basis: Lynn Stout, The Shareholder Value Myth (San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler, 2012).

   292   argues otherwise: Leo E. Strine, “Making It Easier for Directors to ‘Do the Right Thing’?,” Harvard Business Law Review 4 (2014): 235, University of Pennsylvania Institute for Law & Economics, Research Paper No. 14–41, posted December 18, 2014, https://ssrn.com/abstract=2539098.

   293   “if not more than, the bottom line”: Etsy, “Building an Etsy Economy: The New Face of Creative Entrepreneurship,” 2015, retrieved April 4, 2017, https://extfiles.etsy.com/Press/reports/Etsy_NewFaceofCreativeEntrepreneur ship_2015.pdf.

   293   the ouster of Chad Dickerson, Etsy’s CEO: The Associated Press, “Etsy Replaces CEO, Cuts Jobs Amid Shareholder Pressure,” ABC News, May 2, 2017, http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/etsy-replaces-ceo-cuts-jobs-amid-shareholder-pressure-47167426.

   293   supported more than 10,000 jobs: “Airbnb Community Tops $1.15 Billion in Economic Activity in New York City,” Airbnb, May 12, 2015, https://www.airbnb.com/press/news/airbnb-community-tops-1-15-billion-in-economic-activity-in-new-york-city.

   293   helped them stay in their home: “Airbnb Economic Impact,” Airbnb, retrieved April 4, 2017, http://blog.airbnb.com/economic-impact-airbnb/.

   294   A third-party economic study: Peter Cohen, Robert Hahn, Jonathan Hall, Steven Levitt, and Robert Metcalfe, “Using Big Data to Estimate Consumer Surplus: The Case of Uber,” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 22627, September 2016, doi:10.3386/w22627.

   294   nine million third-party sellers: Duncan Clark, Alibaba: The House That Jack Built (New York: Harper, 2016), 5.

   294   in order to favor more lucrative sales by big brands: Ina Steiner, “eBay Makes Big Promises to Small Sellers as SEO Penalty Still Stings,” eCommerce Bytes, April 23, 2015, http://www.ecommercebytes.com/cab/abn/y15/m04/i23/s02.

   294   half of all private sector employment: “SBA Advocacy: Frequently Asked Questions” Small Business Administration, September 2012, retrieved May 12, 2017, https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/FAQ_Sept_2012.pdf.

   295   “now drying the clothes”: Steve Baer, “The Clothesline Paradox,” CoEvolution Quarterly, Winter 1975, retrieved April 3, 2017, http://www.wholeearth.com/issue/2008/article/358/the.clothesline.paradox.

   296   value as and if created: Mariana Mazzucato, The Entrepreneurial State (London: Anthem, 2013), 185–87.

   296   “a minuscule fraction”: William D. Nordhaus, “Schumpeterian Profits in the American Economy: Theory and Measurement,” National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper No. 10433, issued April 2004, doi:10.3386/w10433.

   297   had to change its policies: Sam Shead, “Apple Is Finally Going to Start Publishing Its AI Research,” Business Insider, December 6, 2016, http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-is-finally-going-to-start-publishing-its-artificial-intelligence-research-2016-12.

CHAPTER 14: WE DON’T HAVE TO RUN OUT OF JOBS

   298   “live wisely and agreeably and well”: John Maynard Keynes, “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren,” in Essays in Persuasion (New York: Harcourt Brace, 1932), 358–73, available online from http://www.econ.yale.edu/smith/econ 116a/keynes1.pdf.

   298   the world has been getting better: Max Roser and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, “Global Extreme Poverty,” OurWorldIn Data.org, first published in 2013; substantive revision March 27, 2017, retrieved April 4, 2017, https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty/.

   299   once destroyed factory jobs: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation,” Oxford Martin Institute, September 17, 2013, http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of _Employment.pdf.

   299   the age of growth is over: Robert Gordon, “The Death of Innovation, the End of Growth,” TED 2013, https://www.ted.com/talks/robert_gordon _the_death_of_innovation_the_end_of _growth.

   301   something that had never been done before: Margot Lee Shetterly, Hidden Figures (New York: William Morrow, 2016).

   302   well-paid human jobs: Already, in the US, 43% of the electric power generation workforce is employed in solar technologies, versus 22% of electric power generation via fossil fuels. US Energy and Employment Report, Department of Energy, 2016, 28, https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/01/f34/2017%20US%20Energy%20and%20Jobs%20Report_0.pdf.

   302   cure all disease within their children’s lifetimes: Mark Zuckerberg, “Can we cure all diseases in our children’s lifetime?,” Facebook post, September 21, 2016, https://www.facebook.com/notes/mark-zuckerberg/can-we-cure-all-diseases-in-our-childrens-lifetime/10154087783966634/.

   303   “the leading edge of who is going to create that”: Jeff Immelt, in conversation with Tim O’Reilly, Next:Economy Summit, San Francisco, November 12, 2015, https://www.oreilly.com/ideas/ges-digital-transformation.

   304   it has roughly hovered since: Max Roser, “Working Hours,” OurWorldInData.org, 2016, retrieved April 4, 2017, https://ourworldindata.org/working-hours/.

   304   generosity is the robust strategy: Ryan Avent, The Wealth of Humans (New York: St. Martin’s, 2016), 242.

   305   making the case for UBI: Andy Stern, Raising the Floor (New York, Public Affairs, 2016).

   305   a pilot program in Oakland, California: Sam Altman, “Moving Forward on Basic Income,” Y Combinator (blog), May 31, 2016, https://blog.ycombinator.com/moving-forward-on-basic-income/.

   305   a true randomized control trial: “Launch a basic income,” GiveDirectly, retrieved April 4, 2017, https://www.givedirectly.org/basic-income.

   305   proposed by Thomas Paine in 1795: “Agrarian Justice,” The Writings of Thomas Paine, vol. 3, 1791–1804 (New York: G. P. Putnam’s Sons, 1895), Project Gutenberg ebook edition retrieved April 4, 2017, http://www.gutenberg. org/files/31271/31271-h/31271-h.htm #link2H_4_0029.

   305   Paul Ryan in 2014: Noah Gordon, “The Conservative Case for a Guaranteed Basic Income,” Atlantic, August 6, 2014, https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/08/why-arent-reformicons-pushing-a-guaranteed-basic-income/375600/.

   305   arguments against UBI: Charles Murray and Andrews Stern (For), Jared Bernstein and Jason Furman (Against), “Universal Basic Income Is the Safety Net of the Future,” Intelligence Squared Debates, March 22, 2017, http://www.intelligencesquaredus.org/debates/universal-basic-income-safety-net-future. The audience was persuaded 41% to 4% against the motion.

   307   Bill Gates proposed a “robot tax”: Kevin J. Delaney, “The Robot That Takes Your Job Should Pay Taxes, Says Bill Gates,” Quartz, February 17, 2017, https://qz.com/911968/bill-gates-the-robot-that-takes-your-job-should-pay-taxes/.

   307   only $2,400 per person: Ed Dolan, “Could We Afford a Universal Basic Income?,” EconoMonitor, January 13, 2014, revised June 25, 2014, http://www.economonitor.com/dolanecon/2014/01/13/could-we-afford-a-universal-basic-income/.

   307   would cost only $175 billion: Matt Bruenig and Elizabeth Stoker, “How to Cut the Poverty Rate in Half (It’s Easy),” The Atlantic, October 29, 2013, https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/10/how-to-cut-the-poverty-rate-in-half-its-easy/280971/.

   307   “I am confident”: “The Future of Work and the Proposal for a Universal Basic Income: A Discussion with Andy Stern, Natalie Foster, and Sam Altman,” held at Bloomberg Beta in San Francisco on June 27, 2016, https://raisingthefloor.splashthat.com.

   309   Anne-Marie Slaughter: Anne-Marie Slaughter, Unfinished Business (New York: Random House, 2015).

   309   “patterns of consumption”: Anne-Marie Slaughter, “How the Future of Work May Make Many of Us Happier,” Huffington Post, retrieved April 4, 2017, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/anne marie-slaughter/future-of-work-happier _b_6453594.html.

   309   “support the families they are caring for”: Anne-Marie Slaughter, in conversation with Tim O’Reilly and Lauren Smiley, “Flexibility Needed: Not Just for On Demand Workers,” Next:Economy Summit, San Francisco, October 10–11, 2015. Video retrieved April 4, 2017, https://www.safaribooksonline.com/library/view/next economy-2015-/9781491944547/video 231631.html.

   310   300,000 “fitness trainers” in the United States: “Fitness Trainers and Instructors,” Occupational Outlook Handbook, US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved April 4, 2017, https://www.bls.gov/ooh/personal-care-and-service/fitness-trainers-and-instructors.htm.

   310   By 2011, they were 12.2%: Ian Stewart, Debapratim De, and Alex Cole, “Technology and People: The Great Job-Creating Machine,” Deloitte, August 2015, https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/finance/articles/technology-and-people.html.

   310   an eager consumer of caring services: Zoë Baird and Emily Parker, “A Surprising New Source of American Jobs: China,” Wall Street Journal, May 29, 2015, https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-surprising-new-source-of-american-jobs-china-1432922899.

   311   the other is Papua New Guinea: Laura Addati, Naomi Cassirer, and Katherine Gilchrist, Maternity and Paternity at Work: Law and Practice Across the World (Geneva: International Labor Organization, 2014), http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/---publ/documents/publication/wcms _242615.pdf.

   311   prison costs later in life: “Education vs Prison Costs,” CNN Money, retrieved April 4, 2017, http://money.cnn.com/info graphic/economy/education-vs-prison-costs/.

   313   what they mean, not just what they do: Dave Hickey, “The Birth of the Big Beautiful Art Market,” Air Guitar (Los Angeles: Art Issues Press, 1997), 66–67.

   313   “he may not be soon reduced to form another wish”: Samuel Johnson, Rasselas, in Rasselas, Poems, and Selected Prose, ed. Bertrand H. Bronson (New York: Holt Rinehart & Winston, 1958), 572–73.

   315   price double that of a mass-produced beer: John Kell, “What You Didn’t Know About the Boom in Craft Beer,” Fortune, March 22, 2015, http://fortune.com/2016/03/22/craft-beer-sales-rise-2015/.

   315   artisan goods on Etsy: Fareeha Ali, “Etsy’s Sales, Sellers and Buyers Grow in Q1,” Internet Retailer, May 4, 2016, https://www.internetretailer.com/2016/05/04/etsys-sales-sellers-and-buyers-grow-q1.

   315   “more time and less stuff”: Slaughter, “How the Future of Work May Make Many of Us Happier.”

   316   “I hit a million views a month”: Green, “Introducing the Internet Creators Guild.”

   316   six-figure earnings playing video games: John Egger, “How Exactly Do Twitch Streamers Make a Living? Destiny Breaks It Down,” Dot Esports, April 21, 2015, https://dotesports.com/general/twitch-streaming-money-careers-destiny-1785.

   317   get other people to approve of and support your creative projects: Cory Doctorow, Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom (New York: Tor Books, 2003).

   318   “something you turned into money”: Hickey, Air Guitar, 45.

   318   “Eat food. Not too much. Mostly plants”: Michael Pollan, In Defense of Food (New York: Penguin, 2008).

   318   in family and social life: Dan Buettner, The Blue Zones, 2nd ed. (Washington, DC: National Geographic Society, 2012).

   319   “something we haven’t seen yet, something we have to invent”: Jennifer Pahlka, “Day One,” January 21, 2017, Medium, https://medium.com/@pahlkadot/day-one-39a0cd5bd886.

CHAPTER 15: DON’T REPLACE PEOPLE, AUGMENT THEM

   320   Markle Foundation Rework America task force: For more information, see “AMERICA’S MOMENT: Creating Opportunity in the Connected Age,” Markle Foundation, https://www.mar kle.org/rework-america/americas-mo ment.

   320   transition from wartime to peaceful employment: Claudia Goldin and Lawrence F. Katz, “Human Capital and Social Capital: The Rise of Secondary Schooling in America, 1910 to 1940,” National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper No. 6439, March 1998, doi:10.3386/w6439.

   321   free for all residents: Nanette Asimov, “SF Reaches Deal for Free Tuition at City College,” SFGate, February 27, 2017, http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/SF-reaches-deal-for-free-tuition-at-City-College-10912051.php.

   321   “then we have a problem”: “Former ambassador Jeffrey Bleich speaks on Trump, disruptive technology, and the role of education in a changing economy,” an edited transcript of the keynote address delivered by Jeffrey Bleich at Universities Australia’s higher education conference in Canberra on March 1, 2017, The Conversation, updated March 6, 2017, http://theconversation.com/former-ambassador-jeffrey-bleich-speaks-on-trump-disruptive-technology-and-the-role-of-education-in-a-changing-economy-73957.

   323   “he effects by Discoveries and Inventions”: Abraham Lincoln, “Lecture on Discoveries and Inventions,” April 6, 1858, Abraham Lincoln Online, retrieved April 4, 2017, https://www.abraham lincolnonline.org/lincoln/speeches/dis coveries.htm.

   327   man and machine together design new forms: “Generative Design,” autodesk.com, retrieved April 4, 2017, http://www.auto desk.com/solutions/generative-design.

   328   half the size and uses half the material: “3D Makeover for Hyper-efficient Metalwork,” Arup, May 11, 2015, http://www.arup.com/news/2015_05_may/11_may_3d_makeover_for_hyper-effi cient_metalwork.

   328   create from scratch a complete human genome: Jef D. Boeke, George Church, Andrew Hessel, Nancy J. Kelley, et al., “The Genome Project-Write,” Science, July 8, 2016, 126–27, doi:10.1126/science.aaf6850. For a popular account, see Sharon Begley, “Audacious Project Plans to Create Human Genomes from Scratch,” Stat, June 2, 2016, https://www.statnews.com/2016/06/02/project-human-genome-synthesis/.

   328   bring extinct species back to life: “Revive & Restore: Genetic Rescue for Endangered and Extinct Species,” retrieved April 4, 2017, http://reviverestore.org.

   328   rewrite the DNA inside living organisms: “CRISPR/Cas9 and Targeted Genome Editing: A New Era in Molecular Biology,” New England Biolabs, retrieved April 4, 2017, https://www.neb.com/tools-and-resources/feature-articles/crispr-cas9-and-targeted-genome-editing-a-new-era-in-molecular-biology.

   328   prosthetic limbs that provide sensory feedback: “Neurotechnology Provides Near-Natural Sense of Touch,” DARPA, September 11, 2015, http://www.darpa. mil/news-events/2015-09-11.

   328   respond directly to the mind: Emily Reynolds, “This Mind-Controlled Limb Can Move Individual Fingers,” Wired, February 11, 2016, http://www.wired.co. uk/article/mind-controlled-prosthetics.

   329   a neural memory implant as a cure for Alzheimer’s: Elizabeth Dwoskin, “Putting a Computer in Your Brain Is No Longer Science Fiction,” Washington Post, August 25, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/08/15/putting-a-computer-in-your-brain-is-no-longer-science-fiction/.

   329   enhancing human intelligence: Bryan Johnson, “The Combination of Human and Artificial Intelligence Will Define Humanity’s Future,” TechCrunch, October 12, 2016, https://techcrunch.com/2016/10/12/the-combination-of-human-and-artificial-intelligence-will-define-humanitys-future/.

   329   “helps with certain severe brain injuries”: Tim Urban, “Neuralink and the Brain’s Magical Future,” Wait But Why, April 20, 2017, http://waitbutwhy.com/2017/04/neuralink.html.

   329   “get the Human Colossus working on the cause”: Ibid.

   330   a direct neural interface: Elon Musk, quoted in Tim Urban, “Neuralink and the Brain’s Magical Future.”

   330   “the capacity of people to take in, process, and use information”: Ibid.

   330   “I want to make humans cool again”: Janelle Nanos, “Is Paul English the Soul of the New Machine?,” Boston Globe, May 12, 2016, http://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2016/05/12/drives-uber-helps-haiti-and-may-revolutionize-how-travel-paul-english-soul-new-machine/R2vThUDvRMckM5KoPI jVKK/story.html.

   332   “the Robot Lawyer”: Josh Browder, “Will Bots Replace Lawyers?,” talk given at Next:Economy Summit, San Francisco, October 10–11, 2016, https://www.safaribooksonline.com/library/view/next economy-summit-2016/9781491976067/video282513.html.

   332   automate the application for asylum: Elena Cresci, “Chatbot That Overturned 160,000 Parking Fines Now Helping Refugees Claim Asylum,” Guardian, March 6, 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/tech nology/2017/mar/06/chatbot-donotpay-refugees-claim-asylum-legal-aid.

   335   with an apprenticeship: Steven Levy, “How Google Is Remaking Itself as a ‘Machine Learning First’ Company,” Backchannel, June 22, 2016, https://backchannel.com/how-google-is-remaking-itself-as-a-machine-learning-first-company-ada63defcb70.

   336   “The Internet Was Built on O’Reilly Books”: Publishers Weekly, February 21, 2000. That cover was reproduced in a blog post by brian d. foy, “The Internet Was Built on O’Reilly Books,” program mingperl.com, October 28, 2015, https://www.programmingperl.org/2015/10/the-internet-was-built-on-oreilly-books/.

   337   the cover story featured Charles Benton: Make, January 2005, https://www.scribd.com/doc/33542837/MAKE-Magazine-Volume-1.

   337   “If you can’t open it, you don’t own it”: Phil Torrone, “Owner’s Manifesto,” Make, November 26, 2006, http://makezine.com/2006/11/26/owners-manifesto/.

   338   denying them the right to repair: Cory Doctorow, Information Doesn’t Want to Be Free: Laws for the Internet Age (San Francisco: McSweeney’s, 2014).

   338   who controls products that the consumers nominally own: Jason Koebler, “Why American Farmers Are Hacking Their Tractors with Ukrainian Firmware,” Vice, March 21, 2017, https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/why-american-farmers-are-hacking-their-tractors-with-ukrainian-firmware.

   338   we wrote a book together: Dale Dougherty and Tim O’Reilly, Unix Text Processing (Indianapolis: Hayden, 1987).

   339   study of motivations of people working on open source software projects: Karim Lakhani and Robert Wolf, “Why Hackers Do What They Do: Understanding Motivation and Effort in Free/Open Source Software Projects,” in Perspectives on Free and Open Source Software, ed. J. Feller, B. Fitzgerald, S. Hissam, and K. R. Lakhani (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2005), retrieved April 4, 2017, https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/sloan-school-of-management/15-352-managing-innovation-emerging-trends-spring-2005/readings/lakhaniwolf.pdf.

   340   Ignorance, not knowledge, drives science: Stuart Firestein, Ignorance (New York: Oxford University Press, 2012).

   340   “play with things for my own entertainment”: Feynman, Surely You’re Joking, Mr. Feynman, 157–58.

   341   discovered by sponsors and invited to competitions: John Hagel III, John Seely Brown, and Lang Davison, The Power of Pull (New York: Basic Books, 2010), 1–5.

   342   “far beyond teachers or textbooks”: Brit Morin, “Gen Z Rising,” The Information, February 5, 2017, https://www.theinformation.com/gen-z-rising.

   342   100 million hours of how-to videos: Google, “I Want-to-Do Moments: From Home to Beauty,” Think with Google, retrieved April 4, 2017, https://www.thinkwithgoogle.com/articles/i-want-to-do-micro-moments.html.

   343   reflect the needs of the digital economy: “Skillful: Building a Skills-Based Labor Market,” Markle, retrieved April 4, 2017, https://www.markle.org/rework-america/skillful.

   345   augmented reality display for infantry soldiers: Adam Clark Estes, “DARPA Hacked Together a Super Cheap Google Glass-Like Display,” Gizmodo, April 7, 2015, http://gizmodo.com/darpa-hacked-together-a-super-cheap-google-glass-like-d-1695961692.

   345   deep commitment Microsoft has made to human augmentation: Satya Nadella, interviewed by Gerard Baker, “Microsoft CEO Envisions a Whole New Reality,” Wall Street Journal, October 30, 2016, https://www.wsj.com/articles/microsoft-ceo-envisions-a-whole-new-reality-1477880580.

   346   equally but differently skilled: James Bessen, Learning by Doing (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2015), 28–29.

   346   “little to do with the knowledge acquired in college”: Ibid., 25.

   346   “they published quality periodicals”: Ibid., 24.

   347   “what it takes to create a stable, trained labor force”: Ibid., 36.

   347   “sling JavaScript for their local bank”: Clive Thompson, “The Next Big Blue-Collar Job Is Coding,” Wired, February 2, 2017, https://www.wired.com/2017/02/program ming-is-the-new-blue-collar-job/.

   348   “when shared by a critical mass of people”: Ryan Avent, The Wealth of Humans (New York: St. Martin’s, 2016), 119.

   348   popularized by Robert Putnam: Robert Putnam, Bowling Alone (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2001).

   349   “you get a weekly magazine at the end of it”: Avent, The Wealth of Humans, 105.

   349   “hinder our digital efforts”: Ibid., 110–11.

   349   transform IBM’s internal software development culture: Jeff Smith in conversation with Tim O’Reilly, “How Jeff Smith Built an Agile Culture at IBM,” Next:Economy Summit, San Francisco, October 10, 2016, https://www.oreilly.com/ideas/how-jeff-smith-built-an-agile-culture-at-ibm.

   350   more than two million manufacturing jobs will go unfilled: “The Skills Gap in U.S. Manufacturing: 2015 and Beyond,” Deloitte Manufacturing Institute, retrieved April 4, 2017, http://www.themanufacturinginstitute.org/~/media/827DBC76533942679A15E F7067A704CD.ashx.

CHAPTER 16: WORK ON STUFF THAT MATTERS

   353   “coming away stronger from the fight”: Rainer Maria Rilke, “The Man Watching,” Selected Poems of Rainer Maria Rilke, translation and commentary by Robert Bly (New York: Harper, 1981).

   353   “incremental improvements to current technology”: Satya Nadella, Hit Refresh (New York: Harper Business, 2017), unpublished manuscript, 195.

   355   “Father Madeleine made his fortune”: Victor Hugo, Les Misérables, translated by Charles E. Wilbour, revised and edited by Frederick Mynon Cooper (New York: A. L. Burt, 1929), 156.

   356   “‘Well . . . that’s outside!’ she laughed”: Brian Eno, “The Big Here and Long Now,” Long Now Foundation, retrieved April 4, 2017, http://longnow.org/essays/big-here-long-now/.

   356   We borrow from other countries to finance our consumption: James Fallows, “Be Nice to the Countries That Lend You Money,” Atlantic, December 2008, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2008/12/be-nice-to-the-countries-that-lend-you-money/307148/.

   357   “I’m troubled by the problem of how to sell automobiles to them”: “‘How Will You Get Robots to Pay Union Dues?’” “‘How Will You Get Robots to Buy Cars?’,” Quote Investigator, retrieved April 4, 2017, http://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/11/16/robots-buy-cars/.

   357   “be careful about what we pretend to be”: Kurt Vonnegut, Mother Night (New York: Avon, 1967), v.

   359   “an imaginative leap into the future”: Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View (New York: Crown, 1996), xiv.

   360   “underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten”: Bill Gates, The Road Ahead: Completely Revised and Up-to-Date (New York, Penguin, 1996).

   362   losses to its economy as 10% of GDP: “Economic Losses from Pollution Account for 10% of GDP,” China.org.cn, June 6, 2006, http://www.china.org.cn/english/environment/170527.htm.

   363   a carbon tax whose proceeds would be rebated directly to all Americans: James A. Baker III, Martin Feldstein, Ted Halstead, N. Gregory Mankiw, Henry M. Paulson Jr, George P. Shultz, and Thomas P. Stephenson, “The Conservative Case for Carbon Dividends,” Climate Leadership Council, February 2017, https://www.clcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/TheConservative CaseforCarbonDividends.pdf.

   363   a map of all the energy sources and uses in the US economy: Adele Peters, “This Very, Very Detailed Chart Shows How All the Energy in the U.S. Is Used,” Fast Company, August 9, 2016, https://www.fastcompany.com/3062630/visualizing/this-very-very-detailed-chart-shows-how-all-the-energy-in-the-us-is-used.

   366   his annual shareholder letter: Jeff Bezos, “2016 Letter to Shareholders,” Amazon, April 12, 2017, https://www.amazon.com/p/feature/z6o9g6sysxur57t.

   369   a virtual tour of her factory: Limor Fried, “The Small Scale Factory of the Future,” presentation at Next:Economy Summit, San Francisco, November 12, 2015, https://www.safaribooksonline.com/library /view/nexteconomy-2015-/97814 91944547/video231262.html.

   370   an open field in Rwanda: Keller Rinaudo, “On-Demand Drone Delivery for Blood and Medicine,” presentation at Next:Economy Summit, San Francisco, October 10, 2016, https://www.safari booksonline.com/library/view/next economy-summit-2016/9781491976067/video282448.html.

   371   “I didn’t know that anybody cared what I was doing”: Rehema Ellis, “‘Humans of New York’ Raises $1 Million for Brooklyn School,” NBC News, February 4, 2015, http://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/humans-new-york-raises-1-million-brooklyn-school-n300296.

   371   He ended up raising $3.8 million for research: Eun Kyung Kim, “‘Humans of New York’ Project Raises $3.8 Million to Fight Pediatric Cancer in Just 3 Weeks,” Today, May 24, 2016, http://www.today.com/health/humans-new-york-project-raises-3-8-million-fight-pediatric-t94501.