CHAPTER 9
How to Harness Experts
Many managers are inclined to rely on experts. Before we evaluate that practice, we need to say a few words about expertise. It’s obvious that the term can be understood in many ways. Here we mean expertise in the sense of being able to make winning bets on the future. This ability could be shown implicitly through the capacity to come up with a good design—as, for example, by building a bridge or another structure that performs well in an uncertain future of storms and erosion, or by designing an investment strategy that really is risk-proof. More relevant to our concerns here is the ability to make accurate forecasts about uncertain future events.
Unfortunately, very few so-called experts can make good predictions. ...
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