CHAPTER 1
From High Hopes to Fiascos
When managers and other leaders are deciding how to proceed, they usually talk the problem through. But why, exactly, is it helpful to talk the problem through? Why and when is deliberation important or even desirable?
A big part of the answer must be that if people talk to one another, they will end up with wiser judgments and better outcomes. But does deliberation actually have this effect? This is a crucial question, and an empirical one, which cannot be answered by intuition or anecdotes. By imposing pressure on one another, group members may reach a consensus on falsehood rather than truth. A group of like-minded people, prone to error and with similar inclinations, is particularly vulnerable to this ...
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