CHAPTER 47 ESTIMATING
How long do you think it will take you to finish this book? I’m talking about actual reading time, eyes on the page. Four hours? Six hours? Two weeks? Some of you may choose to read just one chapter a day, in which case it’ll take you 10 weeks or so. Whatever your calculation, it is likely that your estimates will be based on your:
- history — reading books of this length typically takes you five hours of reading time over two weeks
- expertise — as an experienced book reviewer you know that books of 250 pages take 3.5 hours a day over six days.
Shortcutting the estimation process — for waterfall projects especially — is one of the most common causes of problems later on in a project. A major PwC study in 2012 listed poor estimation as its number one reason for project failure, while another survey in 2016 had ‘Improve resource planning and forecasting’ as its number one priority for project managers.
Poor estimation is a result of poor project management. Good estimation comprises collaboration, transparency, repeatability and comparability. The more information that’s available, the better the estimate will be at that point in time. It’s your job to ensure that the estimates are the best that they can be. You’ll know if you’ve done enough work because you will have complete confidence that the task will be completed on time and use the people you identified. If you don’t have that confidence, then you haven’t done enough work.
Estimates usually have four ...
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