The Decision Intelligence Handbook

Table of contents

1. Foreword
2. Preface
   1. About This Book
      1. Decision Intelligence in a Nutshell
      2. LLMs, OMG
      3. Who Is This Book For?
      4. What You Will Learn
      5. Assumptions This Book Makes
      6. Contents of This Book
   2. Conventions Used in This Book
   3. Using Supplemental Materials
   4. O’Reilly Online Learning
   5. How to Contact Us
   6. Acknowledgments
3. 1. Introduction
   1. Do You Need Decision Intelligence?
   2. What DI Does for You and Your Organization
      1. From Data to Decisions
      2. The Decision Complexity Ceiling
   3. What Is DI?
      1. Build Your First CDD, Right Now!
      2. DI Is About Action-to-Outcome Decisions
      3. DI Is About Human-in-the-Loop Decisions
   4. Why Data-Driven Decision Makers Need DI
   5. Where DI Comes From
      1. What DI Is Not
      2. The DI Maturity Model
      3. The Shifting Meaning of “Decision Intelligence”
      4. Who Is Doing DI Today?
   6. The Nine DI Processes
   7. Conclusion
4. 2. Decision Requirements
   1. Decision Requirements (Phase A): Overview
   2. Process A1: The Decision Objective Statement
   3. Decision Objective Statement: Net-Zero Emissions Program Use Case
   4. Interlude: Convening the Decision Team
   5. Making Decisions at Multiple Organizational Levels
   6. Balancing Information, Authority, and Responsibility
   7. Process A2: Decision Framing
      1. Decision Verification
      2. Why Decision Framing Is Important
   8. Formal Process Description: Process A2, Decision Framing
      1. When the Decision Frame Is Wrong
      2. Verifying and Framing: Net-Zero Emissions Program Use Case
   9. Try It Yourself: Decision Requirements for a Telecom Use Case
      1. Framing the Decision
      2. Asking About Outcomes and Goals
      3. Completing the Decision Framing Worksheet
   10. Conclusion
5. 3. Decision Modeling: The Decision Design Process
   1. The Decision Modeling Phase: Overview
   2. Decision Elements
   3. Decisions and Time
   4. Process B1: Decision Design
   5. Formal Process Description: Process B1: Decision Design
   6. Divergent and Convergent Thinking
   7. The CDD Elicitation Meeting
      1. Divergent Thinking: Eliciting Outcomes and Objectives
      2. Capturing Out-of-Context Decision Elements in a “Parking Lot”
      3. Convergent Thinking: Refining (“Cleaning Up”) Outcomes and Objectives
      4. Divergent Thinking: Eliciting Levers
      5. Convergent Thinking: Refining Levers
      6. Divergent Thinking: Eliciting Intermediates (Causal Chains)
      7. Convergent Thinking: Refining Intermediates
      8. Divergent Thinking: Eliciting Externals
      9. Convergent Thinking: Refining Externals
      10. Convergent Thinking: Refining Decision Elements
   8. Refining and Expanding Your CDD
      1. Levels of Modeling Detail
      2. How Do You Know When to Stop Decision Modeling?
   9. Decision Design Use Case: Governmental Net-Zero Project
   10. Try It Yourself: Decision Design for a Telecom Use Case
       1. Brainstorming Outcomes
       2. Brainstorming Levers
       3. Wiring Known Dependencies Together
       4. Initial Refinement
       5. Iterating On and Publishing the CDD
   11. Conclusion
6. 4. Decision Modeling: The Decision Asset Investigation Process
   1. Deciding to Go Digital
   2. Introduction to Process B2: Decision Asset Investigation
      1. From Simple to Sophisticated Assets
      2. Documenting Decision Assets
   3. Formal Process Description: Process B2: Decision Asset Investigation
   4. Decision Asset Investigation: A Sweet Potato CDD Drives Data Gathering and Research
   5. Data for Externals
   6. The Puzzle Toy Use Case: The Decision Asset Conversation
   7. Try It Yourself: Decision Asset Investigation for the Telecom Use Case
   8. Conclusion
7. 5. Decision Reasoning: The Decision Simulation Process
   1. Decision Reasoning: Phase Overview
   2. Decision Simulation Process Overview
      1. Why Simulate Your CDD?
      2. Deciding Whether to Automate Your Decision Simulation
      3. Developing the Simulation Iteratively
   3. Formal Process Description: Decision Simulation
   4. Creating a Decision Simulation
      1. Simplifying the CDD
      2. Lever Choices
      3. Externals and Assumptions
      4. Intermediates and Outcomes
      5. Decision Simulation Fidelity
      6. Running the Simulation “Backward”: Decision Models for Optimization
      7. Technology Options
      8. Simulation Report: Identifying Patterns and Feedback Loops
   5. Net-Zero Emissions Use Case: Simulating the Decision Model
   6. Visualizing Emergent Patterns in the Puzzle Toy Use Case Simulation
   7. Try It Yourself: Decision Simulation for the Telecom Use Case
      1. Deciding on a CDD to Simulate
      2. Designing CDD Visual Elements
      3. Coding the Dependencies
      4. Testing Your Simulation
   8. Conclusion
8. 6. Decision Reasoning: The Decision Assessment Process
   1. Introduction to Process C2, Decision Assessment
   2. Formal Process Description: Process C2, Decision Assessment
   3. Decision Assessment Lenses
      1. Baseline
      2. Accuracy of the Model, and of Its Parts
      3. Bias
      4. Sensitivity
      5. Uncertainty and Risk
      6. Provenance
      7. Fidelity
      8. Consensus
      9. Timing
   4. Try It Yourself: Decision Assessment for the Telecom Use Case
   5. Conclusion
9. 7. Decision Action
   1. Decision Action Phase Overview
   2. Process D1: Decision Monitoring
   3. Formal Process Description: Process D1, Decision Monitoring
      1. When Is a Monitored Value Wrong Enough to Matter?
      2. What to Monitor
      3. When Do You Need to Revisit Your Decision?
      4. Decision Monitoring Records
      5. Silos, Whack-a-Mole, and the Measurement Effect
      6. Case Study: Network Upgrade: When the Decision Is Already Off the Rails
   4. Try It Yourself: Decision Monitoring for the Unlimited Usage Plan Use Case
   5. Conclusion
10. 8. Decision Review
    1. The Decision Review Phase: Overview
    2. Process E1: Decision Artifacts Retention
       1. Legal, Regulatory, and Policy Issues
       2. When Should Decision Artifacts Retention Begin and End?
    3. Formal Process Description: Process E1, Decision Artifacts Retention
    4. Try It Yourself: Decision Artifacts Retention for the Telecom Use Case
    5. Process E2: Decision Retrospective
       1. One-Time Versus Repeated Decisions
       2. Measuring Decision Quality
    6. Formal Process Description: Process E2, Decision Retrospective
       1. Continuous Decision-Process Improvement
    7. Conclusion
11. Appendix. Framework for How Data Informs Decisions
12. Index
13. About the Authors