Technical Analysis of the Currency Market: Classic Techniques for Profiting from Market Swings and Trader Sentiment

CHAPTER 8

Patterns and Antipatterns: Know Your Mark

In the movie Rounders the climactic scene takes place between Matt Damon as a young card shark and a menacing Russian mobster called Teddy KGB, played with slouching malevolence by John Malkovich. Damon and Malkovich are playing high-stakes poker in a garishly lit New York private club and Damon is about to call when he sees Malkovich twist open an Oreo cookie and calmly lick out the middle in a casual gesture of self-satisfaction. Damon hesitates and then quickly folds.

Stunned, Malkovich's character blurts out angrily, “No! you were supposed to bet!” Damon of course goes on to win the game, recover all his money, and head to California to reunite with the girl of his dreams and live happily ever after. Why did Damon withdraw his bet at the last moment? Because the exact same dynamic occurred at the beginning of the movie when Teddy KGB devoured the Oreo cookie in the same manner just prior to setting Damon up and winning all of Damon's life savings. This time the Damon character caught the move before falling into Malkovich's trap.

In poker this practice of looking for key patterns of behavior is called “reading a tell,” and world-class poker players are masters at not only playing the cards but also observing their opponents’ physical moves for any potential clues to the strength of their hands. So, for that matter, are master con men and master magicians. There once was a wonderful New Yorker article on Ricky Jay, a virtuoso ...