CHAPTER 1

This Time, Change Will Be Different

Let me begin by being completely honest. No one can accurately predict the future. During the late 1890s, a reporter writing in The London Times looked at the tens of thousands of horses in New York City and forecast that the city would eventually be buried in horse manure.1 If the automobile hadn’t come along as a disruptive technology that transformed the transportation industry, the reporter might have been right. No one could have forecasted how rapidly this technology changed everything. I assume someone who made buggy whips for a living never felt threatened by talk of horseless carriages until the buggy whip market suddenly collapsed. People in power are often the very worst prognosticators ...

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