Project Decisions, 2nd Edition, 2nd Edition

Answers to Judgment Quiz

1. The correct answer is C (63 days). You cannot add together high estimates (40 days + 40 days = 80 days) to get the duration of the project with two activities associated with 90% confidence. It cannot be 50 days (2 × (10 days + 40 days) ÷ 2), which is the mean duration. The actual calculation can be performed using quantitative analysis tools based on Monte Carlo simulations. For more information, please read chapter 16, “What Is Project Risk? Monte Carlo Method.”

2. The correct answer is B (Strategy B is 17% faster than strategy A). A similar example is discussed in chapter 20, “Adaptive Project Management.” Splitting a risky project into smaller phases usually accelerates the project, but not as significantly as ...