Of our departed shipmates still on patrol, Let them know that we who survive, Will always keep their memories alive.
—The Submariner’s Prayer, author unknown
IF AN ESTIMATION MARKET can foretell the weight of a dressed ox, supply correct answers to Who Wants to Be a Millionaire questions, and predict temperatures, could it do the same for the cause and details of a disaster? Can there be a persuasive answer to a question when no investor in the market has more than a few bits of information? This is a cautionary tale about the need for skepticism when accepting the results of an elaborate prediction market—not only from an estimation market or from one on disasters, although those two provide great case studies.
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