Operations and Supply Chain Management, 8th Edition

CHAPTER   12

Forecasting

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

 AFTER READING THIS CHAPTER, YOU WILL BE ABLE TO:

• Discuss the strategic role of forecasting in supply chain management.
• Describe the forecasting process and identify the components of forecasting demand.
• Forecast demand using various time series models, including exponential smoothing, and trend and seasonal adjustments.
• Discuss and calculate various methods for evaluating forecast accuracy.
• Use Excel to create various forecast models.
• Develop forecasting models with linear and multiple regression analysis.

FORECASTING DENIM JEANS TRENDS

Denim jeans consumers may think that new apparel trends just happen out of the “blue,” but that's rarely the case. Jeans looks, styles, and colors in most cases can be traced back months and often years, and are the result of vast amounts of data and information, sophisticated forecasting methodologies, and expert professional analysis. In the denim jeans industry trends evolve over time, as distinct from fads, which are short term and are driven by extraneous factors like instant celebrity or a music video.

Most large-volume denim jeans brands such as Levi's, Gap, Lee, and Wrangler, and more fashionable brands like H&M, Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, and Zara, follow a similar methodology for trend ...