Making Futures Work

Table of contents

1. Foreword
2. Preface
   1. Who This Book Is For
   2. Format of the Book
      1. Methods
      2. Stories from the Field
   3. Terminology
   4. O’Reilly Online Learning
   5. How to Contact Us
   6. Acknowledgments
3. 1. A Fascination with the Future
   1. Survival of the Fittest
   2. Meteorology
   3. Mapping the Unknown
   4. Imagining the Future
   5. In Closing
4. 2. A Primer on Process and Approach
   1. Stage 0: Preparing for Futures Work
      1. Understanding Your Audience
      2. The Futures Mindset
      3. Framing the Problem
      4. Framing the Project
   2. Stage 1: Strategic Foresight
      1. Trends and Futures Intelligence
      2. Analyzing Trends
      3. Scenarios and Implications
   3. Stage 2: Designing Futures
      1. Types of Futures Design
      2. Designing the Ideation Workshop
   4. Stage 3: Designing Strategy
      1. Planning for Strategy
      2. Measuring Success
   5. Integrating and Advocating for Futures in an Organization
5. Stage 0. Preparing for Futures Work
6. 3. Understanding Your Audience
   1. The Diagnostic
   2. Situational Awareness
      1. Why Does Your Audience Want to Look into the Future, and What Are Their Goals?
      2. What Kind of Project Will Futures Be Applied To?
      3. How Are They Doing Short- and Long-Term Strategies? And Who Is in Charge of That Function Today?
      4. What Has or Hasn’t Worked in the Past?
      5. How Much Do They Know About Futures Thinking?
      6. Who Are Your Potential Allies or Skeptics?
      7. What or Who Are the Potential Barriers or Threats to the Success of the Project?
      8. How Open Is the Organization to Change, Innovation, or Wild Ideas?
      9. What Are the Vocabulary and Artifacts They Are Using for Strategy Today?
      10. How Do They Think About the Future Today?
   3. Methods for Situational Awareness
      1. Sailboat Exercise
      2. SWOT
      3. Premortem
      4. Canvases
      5. Causal Layered Analysis
   4. In Closing
7. 4. The Futures Mindset
   1. A Mindset and an Attitude
   2. Explain the Characteristics of a Futurist
   3. The Future Is Always VUCA
   4. The Futures Cone
   5. Analogies of a Journey
   6. Recognize and Embrace Fears and Failures
   7. The Futures Triangle
      1. The Weight of the Past
      2. The Pull of the Future
      3. The Push of the Present
   8. Show Relevant and Appropriate Examples
   9. In Closing
8. 5. Framing the Problem
   1. Focusing Your Research
      1. The Focal Issue
      2. Time Horizon
      3. Geography/Region
      4. Stakeholders
      5. Demographics/Population Segment
   2. Domain Maps
   3. Problem Framing Canvases
   4. In Closing
9. 6. Framing the Project
   1. Project Logistics
      1. Map Out the Project Timeline and Budget
      2. Plan Your Key Activities
      3. Secure Your Allies and Champions
      4. Align on the Deliverables
      5. Set Up Workspaces, Repositories, and Communication Preferences
      6. Determine Process Success Metrics
   2. Organizing Your Team
      1. Product or Project Manager
      2. Designers
      3. Strategists and Analysts
      4. Trend Researchers/Analysts
      5. Researchers
      6. Domain Experts
      7. Marketing and Communications
      8. Members Versus Collaborators Versus Allies
   3. In Closing
10. Stage 1. Strategic Foresight
11. 7. Fundamentals of Foresight
    1. Strategic Foresight
    2. World Building
       1. Horizon Scanning
       2. Historical Analysis
       3. Bill Sharpe’s Three Horizons
       4. Futures Intelligence
       5. Using STEEP as a Multivariate Lens
       6. Trends, Drivers, and Signals
    3. Prioritizing Trends and Other Futures Intelligence
       1. Probability Versus Impact Matrix
    4. In Closing
12. 8. World Building with Scenarios
    1. Scenario Formats
       1. Narratives
       2. Illustrated Images and Scenes
       3. Immersive and Interactive Experiences
    2. Jim Dator’s Scenario Archetypes
    3. The Axes of Uncertainty
    4. Future Personas
    5. Implication Mapping
    6. Sequencing Methods
    7. In Closing
13. Stage 2. Designing Futures
14. 9. Designing Futures
    1. Speculative Design
    2. Types and Formats of Futures Design
       1. Critical Design
       2. Design Fiction
       3. Science Fiction Prototyping
    3. Speculative Design for Discourse and Strategy
       1. Using Speculative Design for Provocation, Discourse, Critique, or Debate
       2. Using Speculative Design for Strategy
    4. Prototyping the Future Today
    5. In Closing
15. 10. Designing the Ideation Workshop
    1. Preparing for the Workshop
       1. Collect and Prepare Your Research Artifacts for Ideation
       2. Identify Who Will Be Participating and Prepare Them for the Session
       3. Design the Ideation Experience (Selecting the Methods)
    2. Ideation Methods
       1. Rapid Ideation
       2. Prompts
       3. Narrative-Based Prompts
       4. Headlines and Stories from the Future
       5. Immersive Experiences
    3. Using Illustrations for Future Visioning
    4. Using Generative AI Tools for Future Visioning
    5. In Closing
16. Stage 3. Designing Strategy
17. 11. Strategy
    1. Preparing for Strategy
    2. Planning for the Activities
       1. Try to Use What Is Already in Place to Measure Success
       2. Determine Whether New Metrics Are Necessary
       3. Invite the Appropriate Stakeholders
       4. Choose the Frameworks or Methods You’ll Use for Planning
       5. Backcasting
    3. Long-Term, Medium-Term, and Short-Term Planning
       1. McKinsey’s Three Horizons
       2. Jump-Starting Innovation
    4. Measuring Success
       1. Innovation Accounting
       2. Indicator Monitoring
    5. Implementation and Delivery
    6. In Closing
18. 12. Integrating Futures into Your Organization
    1. From the Inside
       1. You’ll Be the First to Introduce Futures to Your Team or Organization
       2. You’ve Established Some Support Within Your Group or Team and Want to Introduce Futures to Other Groups Within the Organization
       3. You’re Hired to Lead a Team or to Be Part of a Team That Is or Will Be Intentionally Practicing Futures
       4. A Strategic Function or Business Unit Already Exists That May or May Not Use Futures, and You Would Like to Collaborate or Introduce It to Them
    2. From the Outside
       1. You Are Hired Specifically to Use Futures on a Project
       2. You’re Hired to Train an Organization or Team
       3. An Organization Is Curious About Futures and Is Asking You to Introduce the Topic
    3. Where and Why Futures Succeeds or Fails
       1. How Futures Fail (Collapse Scenarios)
       2. How Futures Succeeds (Transformational Scenarios)
    4. In Closing
19. Afterword
    1. Next Steps: Continuing Your Journey
    2. Apply Futures Thinking to Your Own Life
    3. Complementary Approaches
    4. New Responsibilities
20. Glossary
21. Index
22. About the Author