Managing Risk in an Unstable World
COUNTRIES IN TURMOIL ELBOW one another off the front page at a dizzying pace: Lebanon follows Ukraine follows Sudan follows Argentina. Companies, meanwhile, fear unpredictable change, even as they seek profit from the opportunities change creates—a freshly privatized industry in Turkey, recently tendered oil blocks in Libya, a new pro-Western government in the former Soviet republic of Ukraine. To help weigh dangers against opportunities, corporations mulling foreign ventures routinely consult economic risk analysts. But basing global investment decisions on economic data without understanding the political context is like basing nutrition decisions on calorie counts without examining the list ...
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