Book description
A ONE-OF-A-KIND GUIDE TO THE BEST PRACTICES IN DECISION ANALYSIS
Decision analysis provides powerful tools for addressing complex decisions that involve uncertainty and multiple objectives, yet most training materials on the subject overlook the soft skills that are essential for success in the field. This unique resource fills this gap in the decision analysis literature and features both soft personal/interpersonal skills and the hard technical skills involving mathematics and modeling.
Readers will learn how to identify and overcome the numerous challenges of decision making, choose the appropriate decision process, lead and manage teams, and create value for their organization. Performing modeling analysis, assessing risk, and implementing decisions are also addressed throughout. Additional features include:
Key insights gleaned from decision analysis applications and behavioral decision analysis research
Integrated coverage of the techniques of single- and multiple-objective decision analysis
Multiple qualitative and quantitative techniques presented for each key decision analysis task
Three substantive real-world case studies illustrating diverse strategies for dealing with the challenges of decision making
Extensive references for mathematical proofs and advanced topics
The Handbook of Decision Analysis is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in various fields including business, operations research, engineering, and science. The book also serves as a supplement for courses at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
Table of contents
- Cover
- Wiley Handbooks in OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
- Title page
- Copyright page
- List of Figures
- List of Tables
- Foreword
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- About the Authors
- Acronyms
- Chapter One: Introduction to Decision Analysis
-
Chapter Two: Decision-Making Challenges
- 2.1 Introduction
- 2.2 Human Decision Making
- 2.3 Decision-Making Challenges
- 2.4 Organizational Decision Processes
- 2.5 Credible Problem Domain Knowledge
- 2.6 Behavioral Decision Analysis Insights
- 2.7 Two Anecdotes: Long-Term Success and a Temporary Success of Supporting the Human Decision-Making Process
- 2.8 Setting the Human Decision-Making Context for the Illustrative Example Problems
- 2.9 Summary
- KEY TERMS
- Chapter Three: Foundations of Decision Analysis
-
Chapter Four: Decision Analysis Soft Skills
- 4.1 Introduction
- 4.2 Thinking Strategically
- 4.3 Leading Decision Analysis Teams
- 4.4 Managing Decision Analysis Projects
- 4.5 Researching
- 4.6 Interviewing Individuals
- 4.7 Conducting Surveys
- 4.8 Facilitating Groups
- 4.9 Aggregating across Experts
- 4.10 Communicating Analysis Insights
- 4.11 Summary
- KEY TERMS
- Chapter Five: Use the Appropriate Decision Process
- Chapter Six: Frame the Decision Opportunity
- Chapter Seven: Craft the Decision Objectives and Value Measures
-
Chapter Eight: Design Creative Alternatives
- 8.1 Introduction
- 8.2 Characteristics of a Good Set of Alternatives
- 8.3 Obstacles to Creating a Good Set of Alternatives
- 8.4 The Expansive Phase of Creating Alternatives
- 8.5 The Reductive Phase of Creating Alternatives
- 8.6 Improving the Set of Alternatives
- 8.7 Illustrative Examples
- 8.8 Summary
- KEY WORDS
-
Chapter Nine: Perform Deterministic Analysis and Develop Insights
- 9.1 Introduction
- 9.2 Planning the Model: Influence Diagrams
- 9.3 Spreadsheet Software as the Modeling Platform
- 9.4 Guidelines for Building a Spreadsheet Decision Model
- 9.5 Organization of a Spreadsheet Decision Model
- 9.6 Spreadsheet Model for the RNAS Illustrative Example
- 9.7 Debugging the Model
- 9.8 Deterministic Analysis
- 9.9 Deterministic Modeling Using Monetary Multidimensional Value Functions (Approach 1B)
- 9.10 Deterministic Modeling Using Nonmonetary Multidimensional Value Functions (Approach 1A)
- 9.11 Illustrative Examples
- 9.12 Summary
- KEY TERMS
- Chapter Ten: Quantify Uncertainty
- Chapter Eleven: Perform Probabilistic Analysis and Identify Insights
- Chapter Twelve: Portfolio Resource Allocation
- Chapter Thirteen: Communicating with Decision Makers and Stakeholders
- Chapter Fourteen: Enable Decision Implementation
-
Chapter Fifteen: Summary of Major Themes
- 15.1 Overview
- 15.2 Decision Analysis Helps Answer Important Decision-Making Questions
- 15.3 The Purpose of Decision Analysis Is to Create Value for Shareholders and Stakeholders
- 15.4 Decision Analysis Is a Socio-Technical Process
- 15.5 Decision Analysts Need Decision-Making Knowledge and Soft Skills
- 15.6 The Decision Analysis Process Must Be Tailored to the Decision and the Organization
- 15.7 Decision Analysis Offers Powerful Analytic Tools to Support Decision Making
- 15.8 Conclusion
-
Appendix A Probability Theory
- A.1 Introduction
- A.2 Distinctions and the Clarity Test
- A.3 Possibility Tree Representation of a Distinction
- A.4 Probability as an Expression of Degree of Belief
- A.5 Inferential Notation
- A.6 Multiple Distinctions
- A.7 Joint, Conditional, and Marginal Probabilities
- A.8 Calculating Joint Probabilities
- A.9 Dependent and Independent Probabilities
- A.10 Reversing Conditional Probabilities: Bayes’ Rule
- A.11 Probability Distributions
- A.12 Combining Uncertain Quantities
- Appendix B Influence Diagrams
- Appendix C Decision Conferencing
- Index
Product information
- Title: Handbook of Decision Analysis
- Author(s):
- Release date: March 2013
- Publisher(s): Wiley
- ISBN: 9781118173138
You might also like
book
The Decision Intelligence Handbook
Decision intelligence (DI) has been widely named as a top technology trend for several years, and …
book
Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management
Emphasizes practical issues and examples of decision making with applications in engineering design and management Featuring …
book
Prescriptive Analytics: The Final Frontier for Evidence-Based Management and Optimal Decision Making
Make Better Decisions, Leverage New Opportunities, and Automate Decisioning at Scale Prescriptive analytics is more directly …
book
Facilitator's Guide to Participatory Decision-Making, 3rd Edition
Unleash the transformative power of face to face groups The third edition of this ground-breaking book …