Football Analytics with Python & R

Chapter 6. Using Data Science for Sports Betting: Poisson Regression and Passing Touchdowns

Much progress has been made in the arena of sports betting in the United States specifically and the world broadly. While Eric was at the Super Bowl in February 2023, almost every single television and radio show in sight was sponsored by some sort of gaming entity. Just five years earlier, sports betting was a taboo topic, discussed only by the fringes, and not legal in any state other than Nevada. That all changed in the spring of 2018, when the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) was repealed by the US Supreme Court, allowing states to determine if and how they would legalize sports betting within their borders.

Sports betting started slowly legalizing throughout the US, with New Jersey and Pennsylvania early adopters, before spreading west to spots including Illinois and Arizona. Almost two-thirds of states now have some form of legalized wagering, which has caused a gold rush in offering new and varied products for gamblers—both recreational and professional.

The betting markets are the single best predictor of what is going to occur on the football field any given weekend for one reason: the wisdom of the crowds. This topic is covered in The Wisdom of the Crowds by James Surowiecki (Doubleday, 2004). Market-making books (in gambling, books are companies that take bets, and bookies are individuals who do the same thing) like Pinnacle, Betcris, and Circa Sports have ...