CHAPTER 1

Why Experimentation Works

The real measure of success is the number of experiments that can be crowded into twenty-four hours.

—ATTRIBUTED TO THOMAS ALVA EDISON, AMERICAN INVENTOR

Soon after Ron Johnson left Apple to become the CEO of J.C. Penney in 2011, he led his team to implement a bold new plan. Under his leadership, the company eliminated coupons and clearance racks, filled stores with branded boutiques, and used technology to eliminate cashiers, cash registers, and checkout counters. Yet after just seventeen months, sales had plunged, losses had soared, and Johnson had lost his job.

How could Penney have gone so wrong? Didn’t it have lots of transaction data revealing customers’ tastes and preferences? What about Johnson’s experience ...

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