Besides exponential smoothing, another approach for analyzing time series is the so-called ARIMA, or Box–Jenkins models. ARIMA stands for “Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average.” These models are very popular, particularly among econometric forecasters. As we will see later in this chapter, ARIMA models can be seen as a generalization of exponential smoothing models. The popularity of ARIMA models is often explained by the logic that if exponential smoothing models are a special case of ARIMA models, then ARIMA models should outperform, or at least perform equivalent to, exponential smoothing. Unfortunately though, this logic does not seem to hold in reality. In large forecasting competitions (Makridakis 1993b; Makridakis ...
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