Is a Growth Revolution Possible?
The deployment era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution is not assured to deliver robust and rapid growth, capital deepening, and improved living standards. Clearly, the future is uncertain. A breakthrough is not guaranteed. The concern is well founded. Both in the United States and Europe, periods following economic shocks have often experienced limited growth. In the United States, between 2007 and 2020 after the Great Recession and financial crisis, U.S. real GDP growth averaged only 1.3 percent per year.
The slowdown is often referred to as hysteresis—the persistence of negative effects after the initial cause is removed (Summers 2014). Blanchard, Cerutti, and Summers (2014) examine 122 ...
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