Analyzing Baseball Data with R

5Value of Plays Using Run Expectancy

Contents

1. 5.1 The Run Expectancy Matrix
2. 5.2 Runs Scored in the Remainder of the Inning
3. 5.3 Creating the Matrix
4. 5.4 Measuring Success of a Batting Play
5. 5.5 Albert Pujols
6. 5.6 Opportunity and Success for All Hitters
7. 5.7 Position in the Batting Lineup
8. 5.8 Run Values of Different Base Hits
   1. 5.8.1 Value of a home run
   2. 5.8.2 Value of a single
9. 5.9 Value of Base Stealing
10. 5.10 Further Reading and Software
11. 5.11 Exercises

5.1 The Run Expectancy Matrix

An important matrix in sabermetrics research is the run expectancy matrix. As each base (first, second, and third) can be occupied by a runner or empty, there are 2x2x2 = 8 possible arrangements of runners on the three bases. The number of outs can be 0, 1, or 2 (three possibilities), ...