New Technologies: Disruptive or Evolutionary?
Tesla and other electric vehicle ventures are promising to displace the internal combustion engine. Then there is autonomy, self-driving cars that will eliminate accidents and make commuting painless. Finally, proponents of car-sharing services—Mobility 2.0 firms such as Uber, Lyft, ZipCar, and Autolib’—claim that they will make personal vehicle ownership a thing of the past. However, the rollout process will take decades. Furthermore, these extend existing technologies and business models. They are evolutionary, not revolutionary, and so will remain the province of today’s core firms.
Let us start with car sharing. By the 1910s taxis were omnipresent, while Tokyo imported Model T buses ...
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