The success of the Internet has been nothing short of phenomenal.
It's difficult to remember that the Internet is more than 25
years old and that the Web has existed for more than a decade.
Although it's increasingly difficult to remember what business
was like in the age before the Internet, the vast majority of
today's Internet users have had email and dialup access to the
World Wide Web for less than five years, and more than half probably
gained their first access during the last 18 months.
It's easy to attribute the success of the Internet and the Web
to a combination of market need, determinism, and consumerism.
It's possible to argue that the critical mass of reasonably
powerful desktop computers, reasonably fast modems, and reasonably
sophisticated computer users made it inevitable that something like
the Web would be deployed in the mid-1990s and that it would gain
mass appeal. The world was ripe for the Web.
It's also possible to argue that the Web was pushed on the
world by companies including IBM, Cisco, Dell, and
Compaq—companies that engaged in huge advertising campaigns
designed to convince business leaders that they would fail if they
did not go online. Certainly, the apparent success of a large number
of venture capital-financed Internet startups such as Amazon.com,
Yahoo, and VeriSign helped to create a climate of fear among many
"old economy" CEOs at the end of the 20th century; the
rapid growth of the Internet-based firms, and their astonishing
valuations by Wall Street, made many firms feel that their only
choice for continued survival was to go online.
But such arguments are almost certainly flawed. It is a mistake to
attribute the success of the Internet and the Web to a combination of
timing and market forces. After all, the Internet was just one of
many large-scale computer networks that were deployed in the 1970s,
80s, and 90s—and it was never considered the network
"most likely to succeed." Instead, for many years most
industry watchers were placing their bets on a network called the
Open System Interconnection
(OSI). As examples, IBM and HP spent hundreds of millions of dollars
developing OSI products; OSI was mandated by the U.S. government,
which even in the 1990s saw the Internet and TCP/IP as a transitional
step.